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A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer

The use of equilibrium models in economics springs from the desire for parsimonious models of economic phenomena that take human reasoning into account. This approach has been the cornerstone of modern economic theory. We explain why this…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 J. Doyne Farmer , John Geanakoplos

We study the problem of maximising terminal utility for an agent facing model uncertainty, in a frictionless discrete-time market with one safe asset and finitely many risky assets. We show that an optimal investment strategy exists if the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-10 Miklós Rásonyi , Andrea Meireles-Rodrigues

We characterize optimal monetary policy when policy endogenously moves risk premia through redistribution across agents who differ in their willingness to bear risk. The analytical core is Marginal Risk Capacity, the covariance of monetary…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-24 Rui Sun

Within the context of traditional life insurance, a model-independent relationship about how the market value of assets is attributed to the best estimate, the value of in-force business and tax is established. This relationship holds true…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-11-14 Simon Hochgerner , Florian Gach

Evaluating the efficiency of human-AI interactions is challenging, including subjective and objective quality aspects. With the focus on the human experience of the explanations, evaluations of explanation methods have become mostly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Helena Löfström

We study an optimal reinsurance problem under a diffusion risk model for an insurer who aims to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. To rule out moral hazard issues, we only consider moral-hazard-free reinsurance contracts by imposing…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 Zhuo Jin , Zuo Quan Xu , Bin Zou

The issue of honesty in constructing confidence sets arises in nonparametric regression. While optimal rate in nonparametric estimation can be achieved and utilized to construct sharp confidence sets, severe degradation of confidence level…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-30 Kun Zhou , Ker-Chau Li , Qing Zhou

We consider a Ramsey model with several households with heterogeneous preferences who are able to borrow capital to each other. Since the capital constraints of one household then depends on the others' capital, one can no longer optimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-04 L. Frerick , G. Müller-Fürstenberger , E. W. Sachs , L. Somorowsky

Social consensus is important for society. Sometimes the success of society depends on a consensus (e.g. the decision to pay taxes or to commit to the constitution). Examples for continuous opinion dynamics are discussions about tax rates…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-03-06 Jan Lorenz

Small changes to the parameters of a system can lead to abrupt qualitative changes of its behavior, a phenomenon known as bifurcation. Such instabilities are typically considered problematic, however, we show that their power can be…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-05-01 Ger Yang , Georgios Piliouras , David Basanta

An assurance case is intended to provide justifiable confidence in the truth of its top claim, which typically concerns safety or security. A natural question is then "how much" confidence does the case provide? We argue that confidence…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Robin Bloomfield , John Rushby

We take an axiomatic approach to study redistribution problems when agents report income and needs. We formalize axioms reflecting ethical and operational principles such as additivity, impartiality and individual rationality. Different…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-12-30 Ricardo Martinez , Juan D. Moreno-Ternero

This paper develops a rigorous mathematical framework for egalitarian ethics by integrating formal tools from economics and mathematics. We motivate the formalism by investigating the limitations of conventional informal approaches by…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-14 Shuang Wei

Many economic theory models incorporate finiteness assumptions that, while introduced for simplicity, play a real role in the analysis. We provide a principled framework for scaling results from such models by removing these finiteness…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Yannai A. Gonczarowski , Scott Duke Kominers , Ran I. Shorrer

Within a general semimartingale framework, we study the relationship between collective market efficiency and individual rationality. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of (possibly zero-sum) exchanges among…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-06 Alessandro Doldi , Marco Frittelli , Marco Maggis

Economic models may exhibit incompleteness depending on whether or not they admit certain policy-relevant features such as strategic interaction, self-selection, or state dependence. We develop a novel test of model incompleteness and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-08 Shuowen Chen , Hiroaki Kaido

We embed the behaviour of tax evasion into the standard two-dimensional Ising model. In the presence of an external magnetic field, the Ising model is able to generate the empirically observed effect of tax morale, i.e. the phenomenon that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-06-03 G. Zaklan , F. W. S. Lima , F. Westerhoff

This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-05-28 Duarte Gonçalves , Bruno A. Furtado

In this paper, we investigate the problem of optimal strategies of dividend and reinsurance under the Cram\'{e}r-Lundberg risk model embedded with the thinning-dependence structure which was firstly introduced by Wang and Yuen (2005),…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-02 Mi Chen , Kam Chuen Yuen , Wenyuan Wang
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