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We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-06 Jozef Barunik , Lukas Vacha

Complex systems which can be represented in the form of static and dynamic graphs arise in different fields, e.g. communication, engineering and industry. One of the interesting problems in analysing dynamic network structures is to monitor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Anna Malinovskaya , Philipp Otto , Torben Peters

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Sean Kulinski , Saurabh Bagchi , David I. Inouye

Networks effectively capture interactions among components of complex systems, and have thus become a mainstay in many scientific disciplines. Growing evidence, especially from biology, suggest that networks undergo changes over time, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Ali Shojaie

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

In reliable decision-making systems based on machine learning, models have to be robust to distributional shifts or provide the uncertainty of their predictions. In node-level problems of graph learning, distributional shifts can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Gleb Bazhenov , Denis Kuznedelev , Andrey Malinin , Artem Babenko , Liudmila Prokhorenkova

A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-11-15 Sayantan Banerjee , Kousik Guhathakurta

There are now several large scale deployments of differential privacy used to collect statistical information about users. However, these deployments periodically recollect the data and recompute the statistics using algorithms designed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-21 Matthew Joseph , Aaron Roth , Jonathan Ullman , Bo Waggoner

Very long and noisy sequence data arise from biological sciences to social science including high throughput data in genomics and stock prices in econometrics. Often such data are collected in order to identify and understand shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-15 Yue S. Niu , Ning Hao , Heping Zhang

In environmental sciences, it is often of interest to assess whether the dependence between extreme measurements has changed during the observation period. The aim of this work is to propose a statistical test that is particularly sensitive…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-06 Axel Bücher , Paul Kinsvater , Ivan Kojadinovic

Temporal data distribution shift is prevalent in the financial text. How can a financial sentiment analysis system be trained in a volatile market environment that can accurately infer sentiment and be robust to temporal data distribution…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Yue Guo , Chenxi Hu , Yi Yang

Real-world systems are often complex, dynamic, and nonlinear. Understanding the dynamics of a system from its observed time series is key to the prediction and control of the system's behavior. While most existing techniques tacitly assume…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-19 Bing Wang , Jie Sun , Adilson E. Motter

The study of the dynamic behavior of cross-sectional ranks over time for functional data and the ranks of the observed curves at each time point and their temporal evolution can yield valuable insights into the time dynamics of functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-11 Yaqing Chen , Matthew Dawson , Hans-Georg Müller

The detection of change-points in a spatially or time ordered data sequence is an important problem in many fields such as genetics and finance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a statistic recently suggested for detecting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-01 Gérard Biau , Kevin Bleakley , David Mason

This article presents a modern deterministic framework for the study of leading significant digit distributions in numerical data. Rather than relying on traditional probabilistic or mixture-based explanations, we demonstrate that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-20 Vladimir Berman

Large volumes of spatiotemporal data, characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, may experience structural changes over time. Unlike traditional change-point problems, each sequence in this context consists of function-valued…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Fengyi Song , Decai Liang , Changliang Zou

Scaling properties in financial fluctuations are reviewed from the standpoint of statistical physics. We firstly show theoretically that the balance of demand and supply enhances fluctuations due to the underlying phase transition…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 H. Takayasu , M. Takayasu , M. P. Okazaki , K. Marumo , T. Shimizu

Financial markets, being spectacular examples of complex systems, display rich correlation structures among price returns of different assets. The correlation structures change drastically, akin to phase transitions in physical phenomena,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-23 Anirban Chakraborti , Hrishidev , Kiran Sharma , Hirdesh K. Pharasi

Time series of graphs are increasingly prevalent in modern data and pose unique challenges to visual exploration and pattern extraction. This paper describes the development and application of matrix factorizations for exploration and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Shawn Mankad , George Michailidis

The change-point detection problem seeks to identify distributional changes at an unknown change-point k* in a stream of data. This problem appears in many important practical settings involving personal data, including biosurveillance,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-10 Rachel Cummings , Sara Krehbiel , Yajun Mei , Rui Tuo , Wanrong Zhang