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The paper addresses Bayesian inferences in inverse problems with uncertainty quantification involving a computationally expensive forward map associated with solving a partial differential equations. To mitigate the computational cost, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 A. Galaviz , J. A. Christen , A. Capella

We introduce Prob-GParareal, a probabilistic extension of the GParareal algorithm designed to provide uncertainty quantification for the Parallel-in-Time (PinT) solution of (ordinary and partial) differential equations (ODEs, PDEs). The…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-05 Guglielmo Gattiglio , Lyudmila Grigoryeva , Massimiliano Tamborrino

We present a new approach for constructing a data-driven surrogate model and using it for Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models. We first use parameter observations and Gaussian Process regression to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Jing Li , Alexandre M Tartakovsky

Several applications such as nuclear forensics, nuclear fuel cycle simulations and sensitivity analysis require methods to quickly compute spent fuel nuclide compositions for various irradiation histories. Traditionally, this has been done…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-03-16 Antonio Figueroa , Malte Goettsche

Data in many applications follows systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). This paper presents a novel algorithmic and symbolic construction for covariance functions of Gaussian Processes (GPs) with realizations strictly following…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-29 Andreas Besginow , Markus Lange-Hegermann

We introduce a scalable Gaussian process (GP) framework with deep product kernels for data-driven learning of parametrized spatio-temporal fields over fixed or parameter-dependent domains. The proposed framework learns a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Srinath Dama , Prasanth B. Nair

We introduce a computational efficient data-driven framework suitable for quantifying the uncertainty in physical parameters and model formulation of computer models, represented by differential equations. We construct physics-informed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-01 Michail Spitieris , Ingelin Steinsland

Diverse domains of science and engineering use parameterised mechanistic models. Engineers and scientists can often hypothesise several rival models to explain a specific process or phenomenon. Consider a model discrimination setting where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Simon Olofsson , Eduardo S. Schultz , Adel Mhamdi , Alexander Mitsos , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Ruth Misener

A surrogate model approximates the outputs of a solver of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) with a low computational cost. In this article, we propose a method to build learning-based surrogates in the context of parameterized PDEs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Alejandro Ribés , Nawfal Benchekroun , Théo Delagnes

We introduce new Gaussian Process (GP) high-order approximations to linear operations that are frequently used in various numerical methods. Our method employs the kernel-based GP regression modeling, a non-parametric Bayesian approach to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-06-09 Christopher DeGrendele , Dongwook Lee

Numerically solving partial differential equations (PDEs) can be challenging and computationally expensive. This has led to the development of reduced-order models (ROMs) that are accurate but faster than full order models (FOMs). Recently,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Christophe Bonneville , Youngsoo Choi , Debojyoti Ghosh , Jonathan L. Belof

In image reconstruction, an accurate quantification of uncertainty is of great importance for informed decision making. Here, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems can be used: the image is represented through a random function that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-24 Jonas Latz , Aretha L. Teckentrup , Simon Urbainczyk

Computational models of complex physical systems often rely on simplifying assumptions which inevitably introduce model error, with consequent predictive errors. Given data on model observables, the estimation of parameterized model-error…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Mridula Kuppa , Khachik Sargsyan , Marco Panesi , Habib N. Najm

Mechanistic knowledge about the physical world is virtually always expressed via partial differential equations (PDEs). Recently, there has been a surge of interest in probabilistic PDE solvers -- Bayesian statistical models mostly based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Tim Weiland , Marvin Pförtner , Philipp Hennig

Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a strategy for accelerating saddle point searches on high-dimensional energy surfaces by reducing the number of times the energy and its derivatives with respect to atomic coordinates need to be…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-12-03 Rohit Goswami , Hannes Jónsson

This paper proposes a physically consistent Gaussian Process (GP) enabling the identification of uncertain Lagrangian systems. The function space is tailored according to the energy components of the Lagrangian and the differential equation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Giulio Evangelisti , Sandra Hirche

Bayesian hyperparameter optimization relies heavily on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, due to robust distributional posteriors and strong performance on limited training samples. GPs however underperform in categorical hyperparameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Riccardo Doyle

The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Marko Järvenpää , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

In this paper we present a novel analysis of variance Gaussian process (ANOVA-GP) emulator for models governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) with high-dimensional random inputs. Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used surrogate…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-05-14 Chen Chen , Qifeng Liao

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Dongwei Ye , Weihao Yan , Christoph Brune , Mengwu Guo