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Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

Trajectory prediction is critical for autonomous driving, enabling safe and efficient planning in dense, dynamic traffic. Most existing methods optimize prediction accuracy under fixed-length observations. However, real-world driving often…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Hao Zhou , Lu Qi , Jason Li , Jie Zhang , Yi Liu , Xu Yang , Mingyu Fan , Fei Luo

Missing values in high-dimensional, mixed-type datasets pose significant challenges for data imputation, particularly under Missing Not At Random (MNAR) mechanisms. Existing methods struggle to integrate local and global data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Md Atik Ahamed , Qiang Ye , Qiang Cheng

With significant advancements in diffusion models, addressing the potential risks of dataset bias becomes increasingly important. Since generated outputs directly suffer from dataset bias, mitigating latent bias becomes a key factor in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Yeongmin Kim , Byeonghu Na , Minsang Park , JoonHo Jang , Dongjun Kim , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

The imputation of missing values in time series has many applications in healthcare and finance. While autoregressive models are natural candidates for time series imputation, score-based diffusion models have recently outperformed existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Yusuke Tashiro , Jiaming Song , Yang Song , Stefano Ermon

Distributionally robust policy learning aims to find a policy that performs well under the worst-case distributional shift, and yet most existing methods for robust policy learning consider the worst-case joint distribution of the covariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jingyuan Wang , Zhimei Ren , Ruohan Zhan , Zhengyuan Zhou

In many real-world regression tasks, the data distribution is heavily skewed, and models learn predominantly from abundant majority samples while failing to predict minority labels accurately. While imbalanced classification has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Shayan Alahyari

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved strong zero-shot forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining and retrieval-augmented prediction. However, our empirical analysis reveals a non-trivial limitation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jinjin Chi , Lei Feng , Lulu Zhang , Yongcheng Jing , Yiming Wang , Ximing Li , Jialie Shen , Leszek Rutkowski , Dacheng Tao

Due to the dynamics of underlying physics and external influences, the uncertainty of time series often varies over time. However, existing Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) often fail to capture this non-stationary nature,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Weiwei Ye , Zhuopeng Xu , Ning Gui

Accurate time series forecasting models are often compromised by data drift, where underlying data distributions change over time, leading to significant declines in prediction performance. To address this challenge, this study proposes an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-30 Nikhil Pawar , Guilherme Vieira Hollweg , Akhtar Hussain , Wencong Su , Van-Hai Bui

We propose a function-valued evaluation metric for generative models based on the relative density ratio (RDR) designed to characterize distributional differences between real and generated samples. As an evaluation metric, the RDR function…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Yuliang Xu , Yun Wei , Li Ma

Safely deploying robots in uncertain and dynamic environments requires a systematic accounting of various risks, both within and across layers in an autonomy stack from perception to motion planning and control. Many widely used motion…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-02-10 Venkatraman Renganathan , Iman Shames , Tyler H. Summers

Time series forecasting is critical for many applications, where deep learning-based point prediction models have demonstrated strong performance. However, in practical scenarios, there is also a need to quantify predictive uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Xiannan Huang , Shuhan Qiu

Max-stable random fields provide canonical models for the dependence of multivariate extremes. Inference with such models has been challenging due to the lack of tractable likelihoods. In contrast, the finite dimensional cumulative…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-30 Robert A. Yuen , Stilian Stoev

Joint pedestrian trajectory prediction has long grappled with the inherent unpredictability of human behaviors. Recent investigations employing variants of conditional diffusion models in trajectory prediction have exhibited notable…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-05 Haotian Lin , Yixiao Wang , Mingxiao Huo , Chensheng Peng , Zhiyuan Liu , Masayoshi Tomizuka

Distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRSO) is a framework for decision-making problems under certainty, which finds solutions that perform well for a chosen set of probability distributions. Many different approaches for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Rui Gao , Anton J. Kleywegt

The fast fashion industry suffers from significant environmental impacts due to overproduction and unsold inventory. Accurately predicting sales volumes for unreleased products could significantly improve efficiency and resource…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Andrea Avogaro , Luigi Capogrosso , Franco Fummi , Marco Cristani

Random forest regression (RF) is an extremely popular tool for the analysis of high-dimensional data. Nonetheless, its benefits may be lessened in sparse settings due to weak predictors, and a pre-estimation dimension reduction (targeting)…

Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL already produce full predictive distributions, yet the benchmarks used to evaluate them (TabArena, TALENT, and others) still rely almost exclusively on point-estimate metrics (RMSE,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Jonas Landsgesell , Pascal Knoll

Diffusion models have shown promise in forecasting future data from multivariate time series. However, few existing methods account for recurring structures, or patterns, that appear within the data. We present Pattern-Guided Diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Vivian Lin , Kuk Jin Jang , Wenwen Si , Insup Lee
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