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Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) provides a flexible approach for non-linear dimensionality reduction that has been widely applied. However, the current approach for training GP-LVMs is based on maximum likelihood, where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-09-09 Andreas C. Damianou , Michalis K. Titsias , Neil D. Lawrence

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) are capable of being in-context learners. However, the underlying mechanism of in-context learning (ICL) is still a major research question, and experimental research results about how models exploit…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Aliakbar Nafar , Kristen Brent Venable , Parisa Kordjamshidi

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable capabilities in learning from explanations in prompts, but there has been limited understanding of exactly how these explanations function or why they are effective. This work aims to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Xi Ye , Srinivasan Iyer , Asli Celikyilmaz , Ves Stoyanov , Greg Durrett , Ramakanth Pasunuru

We explore the notion of uncertainty in the context of modern abstractive summarization models, using the tools of Bayesian Deep Learning. Our approach approximates Bayesian inference by first extending state-of-the-art summarization models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Alexios Gidiotis , Grigorios Tsoumakas

The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Srijith Rajamohan , Ahmed Salhin , Josh Frazier , Rohit Kumar , Yu-Cheng Tsai , Todd Cook

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Sarthak Mittal , Niels Leif Bracher , Guillaume Lajoie , Priyank Jaini , Marcus Brubaker

Many machine learning applications use latent variable models to explain structure in data, whereby visible variables (= coordinates of the given datapoint) are explained as a probabilistic function of some hidden variables. Finding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-30 Sanjeev Arora , Rong Ge , Tengyu Ma , Andrej Risteski

We explore the performance of latent variable models for conditional text generation in the context of neural machine translation (NMT). Similar to Zhang et al., we augment the encoder-decoder NMT paradigm by introducing a continuous latent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-12-12 Artidoro Pagnoni , Kevin Liu , Shangyan Li

Speech classification has attracted increasing attention due to its wide applications, particularly in classifying physical and mental states. However, these tasks are challenging due to the high variability in speech signals. Ensemble…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-25 Bagus Tris Atmaja , Felix Burkhardt

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language models (LLMs) to acquire new behaviors from the input sequence alone without any parameter updates. Recent studies have shown that ICL can surpass the original meaning learned in pretraining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Yongyi Yang , Hidenori Tanaka , Wei Hu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Sree Harsha Tanneru , Chirag Agarwal , Himabindu Lakkaraju

Augmenting Large Language Models (LLMs) with retrieved external knowledge has proven effective for improving the factual accuracy of generated responses. Despite their success, retrieval-augmented LLMs still face the distractibility issue,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Zexuan Qiu , Zijing Ou , Bin Wu , Jingjing Li , Aiwei Liu , Irwin King

A latent-variable model is introduced for text matching, inferring sentence representations by jointly optimizing generative and discriminative objectives. To alleviate typical optimization challenges in latent-variable models for text, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-11-23 Dinghan Shen , Yizhe Zhang , Ricardo Henao , Qinliang Su , Lawrence Carin

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language models to perform few-shot learning by conditioning on labeled examples in the prompt. Despite its flexibility, ICL suffers from instability -- especially as prompt length increases with more…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Josip Jukić , Jan Šnajder

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models (LLMs) to solve novel tasks without weight updates. Despite its empirical success, the mechanism behind ICL remains poorly understood, limiting our ability to interpret, improve, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Chengye Li , Haiyun Liu , Yuanxi Li