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This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Hwanwoo Kim , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Fast, highly accurate, and reliable inference of the sky origin of gravitational waves would enable real-time multi-messenger astronomy. Current Bayesian inference methodologies, although highly accurate and reliable, are slow. Deep…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-08-17 Alex Kolmus , Grégory Baltus , Justin Janquart , Twan van Laarhoven , Sarah Caudill , Tom Heskes

Cosmological experiments often employ Bayesian workflows to derive constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from their data. It has been shown that these constraints can be combined across different probes such as Planck and…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-11-28 Harry Bevins , Will Handley , Pablo Lemos , Peter Sims , Eloy de Lera Acedo , Anastasia Fialkov

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-21 Botond Cseke , David Schnoerr , Manfred Opper , Guido Sanguinetti

With the advance in computational resources, Bayesian inference is increasingly becoming the standard tool of practise in GW astronomy. However, algorithms such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) require a large number of iterations to…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2014-11-04 Edward K. Porter

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Supervised topic models with a logistic likelihood have two issues that potentially limit their practical use: 1) response variables are usually over-weighted by document word counts; and 2) existing variational inference methods make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-10-10 Jun Zhu , Xun Zheng , Bo Zhang

The determination of the physical parameters of gravitational wave events is a fundamental pillar in the analysis of the signals observed by the current ground-based interferometers. Typically, this is done using Bayesian inference…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-11-07 M. Andrés-Carcasona , M. Martinez , Ll. M. Mir

We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Lu Zhang , Wenpin Tang , Sudipto Banerjee

In this study, we address the problem of high-dimensional binary classification. Our proposed solution involves employing an aggregation technique founded on exponential weights and empirical hinge loss. Through the employment of a suitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-02 The Tien Mai

In this paper we consider a new probability sampling methods based on Langevin diffusion dynamics to resolve the problem of existing Monte Carlo algorithms when draw samples from high dimensional target densities. We extent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Z. Zarezadeh , N. Zarezadeh

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-09 Clement Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting

Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Richard D. Payne , Nilabja Guha , Bani K. Mallick

A method to direct evaluation of expectations for Langevin systems (stochastic differential equations) is proposed. The method is based on a birth-death process which is derived using combinations of dummy variables and It{\^o} formula. As…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-03-20 Jun Ohkubo

Bayesian optimization provides an effective method to optimize expensive-to-evaluate black box functions. It has been widely applied to problems in many fields, including notably in computer science, e.g. in machine learning to optimize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Mike Diessner , Joseph O'Connor , Andrew Wynn , Sylvain Laizet , Yu Guan , Kevin Wilson , Richard D. Whalley

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Robotics and automation offer massive accelerations for solving intractable, multivariate scientific problems such as materials discovery, but the available search spaces can be dauntingly large. Bayesian optimization (BO) has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Abdoulatif Cisse , Xenophon Evangelopoulos , Sam Carruthers , Vladimir V. Gusev , Andrew I. Cooper

We consider numerical methods for thermodynamic sampling, i.e. computing sequences of points distributed according to the Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution, using Langevin dynamics and overdamped Langevin dynamics (Brownian dynamics). A wide…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-01-13 Benedict Leimkuhler , Charles Matthews , Gabriel Stoltz

Purpose: The Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA) in combination with diffusion models can generate high quality MRI reconstructions with uncertainty estimation from highly undersampled k-space data. However, sampling methods such as…

Medical Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Moritz Blumenthal , Tina Holliber , Jonathan I. Tamir , Martin Uecker

The LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories have detected many exciting events over the past five years. As the rate of detections grows with detector sensitivity, this poses a growing computational challenge for data analysis. With…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-11 Stephen R. Green , Jonathan Gair
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