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Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations of such shifts remain scarce, preventing the development of…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Louis Allain , Sébastien da Veiga , Brian Staber

We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Pierre Humbert , Gilles Blanchard

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language models (LLMs) to perform new tasks by prompting them with a sequence of training examples. However, it is known that ICL is very sensitive to the choice of training examples: randomly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Ting-Yun Chang , Robin Jia

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

In-context learning (ICL) allows LLMs to learn from examples without changing their weights: this is a particularly promising capability for long-context LLMs that can potentially learn from many examples. Recently, Lin et al. (2024)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Hao Zhao , Maksym Andriushchenko , Francesco Croce , Nicolas Flammarion

Existing continual learning (CL) methods mainly rely on fine-tuning or adapting large language models (LLMs). They still suffer from catastrophic forgetting (CF). Little work has been done to exploit in-context learning (ICL) to leverage…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Saleh Momeni , Sahisnu Mazumder , Zixuan Ke , Bing Liu

In-context Learning (ICL) empowers large language models (LLMs) to swiftly adapt to unseen tasks at inference-time by prefixing a few demonstration examples before queries. Despite its versatility, ICL incurs substantial computational and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Zhuowei Li , Zihao Xu , Ligong Han , Yunhe Gao , Song Wen , Di Liu , Hao Wang , Dimitris N. Metaxas

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

Federated Continual Learning (FCL) has emerged as a robust solution for collaborative model training in dynamic environments, where data samples are continuously generated and distributed across multiple devices. This survey provides a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Parisa Hamedi , Roozbeh Razavi-Far , Ehsan Hallaji

While large language models based on the transformer architecture have demonstrated remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, understandings of such capabilities are still in an early stage, where existing theory and mechanistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Tianyu Guo , Wei Hu , Song Mei , Huan Wang , Caiming Xiong , Silvio Savarese , Yu Bai

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Junxian Liu , Hao Zeng , Hongxin Wei

In-context learning (ICL) allows large models to adapt to tasks using a few examples, yet its extension to vision-language models (VLMs) remains fragile. Our analysis reveals that the fundamental limitation lies in an inductive gap, models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Haoyu Wang , Haonan Wang , Yuyan Chen , Jun Chen , Gang Liu , Qian Wang , Jiahong Yan , Yanghua Xiao

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani