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We propose a simple (12 parameter) hybrid dynamic model that simultaneously captures the continuous-valued dynamics of three human cognitive states-trust, perceived risk, and mental workload-as well as discrete transitions in reliance on…
Demographic transition, characterized by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernization. While typical patterns of fertility decline are observed in Western countries, their applicability to other…
Survey data are widely used to study how income inequality, poverty, and welfare evolve over time. A common practice is to estimate the income distribution separately for each year, treating annual observations as independent…
Pore-scale simulations accurately describe transport properties of fluids in the subsurface. These simulations enhance our understanding of applications such as assessing hydrogen storage efficiency and forecasting CO$_2$ sequestration…
The gradual accumulation of damage and dysregulation during the aging of living organisms can be quantified. Even so, the aging process is complex and has multiple interacting physiological scales -- from the molecular to cellular to whole…
Discrete time, spatially extended models play an important role in ecology, modelling population dynamics of species ranging from micro-organisms to birds. An important question is how 'bottom up', individual-based models can be…
Phase transitions, characterized by abrupt shifts between macroscopic patterns of organization, are ubiquitous in complex systems. Despite considerable research in the physical and natural sciences, the empirical study of this phenomenon in…
Many imaging techniques for biological systems -- like fixation of cells coupled with fluorescence microscopy -- provide sharp spatial resolution in reporting locations of individuals at a single moment in time but also destroy the dynamics…
The use of computational simulation is by now so pervasive in society that it is no exaggeration to say that continued U.S. and international prosperity, security, and health depend in part on continued improvements in simulation…
We formulate an age-structured nonlinear partial differential equation model that features short-term immigration effects in a population. Individuals can immigrate into the population as any of the three stages in the model: susceptible,…
The sustainability of the academic ecosystem relies on researcher demographics and gender balance, yet assessing these dynamics in a timely manner for policy is challenging. Here, we propose a researcher population pyramid framework for…
Biological aging is characterized by an age-dependent increase in the probability of death and by a decrease in the reproductive capacity. Individual age-dependent rates of survival and reproduction have a strong impact on population…
This paper examines whether students are entering the generative AI era with sufficiently strong educational foundations, focusing on the relationship between learning environments and changes in ICT related career aspirations across…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
Understanding the development of adolescent behavioral and mental health outcomes requires integrating genetic predisposition, environmental exposures, and neurobiological processes over time. Here, we present a unified quantitative…
More and more people are experiencing pressure from work, life, and education. These pressures often lead to an anxious state of mind, or even the early symptoms of suicidal ideation. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI)…
We present cogsworth, an open-source Python tool for producing self-consistent population synthesis and galactic dynamics simulations. With cogsworth one can (1) sample a population of binaries and star formation history, (2) perform rapid…
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
Motivated by the challenge of analyzing the dynamics of weekly sea border crossings in the Mediterranean (2015-2025) and the English Channel (2018-2025), we develop a Bayesian dynamic framework for modeling heteroskedastic count time…