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We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-10 Paulo Orenstein

Scientific experimentation is largely driven by statistical hypothesis testing to determine significant differences in interventions. Traditionally, experimenters allocate samples uniformly between each intervention. However, such an…

An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

This work investigates the offline formulation of the contextual bandit problem, where the goal is to leverage past interactions collected under a behavior policy to evaluate, select, and learn new, potentially better-performing, policies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Otmane Sakhi , Imad Aouali , Pierre Alquier , Nicolas Chopin

In this work, we propose a multi-armed bandit-based framework for identifying a compact set of informative data instances (i.e., the prototypes) from a source dataset $S$ that best represents a given target set $T$. Prototypical examples of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-24 Arghya Roy Chaudhuri , Pratik Jawanpuria , Bamdev Mishra

A recently introduced Importance Sampling strategy based on a least squares optimization is applied to the Monte Carlo simulation of Libor Market Models. Such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) allows the automatic optimization of the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Luca Capriotti

Gaussian time-series models are often specified through their spectral density. Such models present several computational challenges, in particular because of the non-sparse nature of the covariance matrix. We derive a fast approximation of…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-20 Nicolas Chopin , Judith Rousseau , Brunero Liseo

We propose a new strategy for best-arm identification with fixed confidence of Gaussian variables with bounded means and unit variance. This strategy, called Exploration-Biased Sampling, is not only asymptotically optimal: it is to the best…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Antoine Barrier , Aurélien Garivier , Tomáš Kocák

The effective sample size (ESS) is widely used in sample-based simulation methods for assessing the quality of a Monte Carlo approximation of a given distribution and of related integrals. In this paper, we revisit the approximation of the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-14 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , Christian P. Robert

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Ndaoud , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

Thompson sampling provides a solution to bandit problems in which new observations are allocated to arms with the posterior probability that an arm is optimal. While sometimes easy to implement and asymptotically optimal, Thompson sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-16 Dean Eckles , Maurits Kaptein

We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-04 Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Michalis K. Titsias , David M. Blei

Many stochastic optimization algorithms work by estimating the gradient of the cost function on the fly by sampling datapoints uniformly at random from a training set. However, the estimator might have a large variance, which inadvertently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-10 Farnood Salehi , L. Elisa Celis , Patrick Thiran

We develop an efficient posterior sampling scheme for the Poisson INGARCH models. The proposed method is based on the approximation of the posterior density that exploits the Poisson limit of the negative binomial distribution. It allows us…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yixuan Fan , Zhengwei Liu , Fukang Zhu

We investigate stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit with semi-bandit feedback (CMAB). In CMAB, the question of the existence of an efficient policy with an optimal asymptotic regret (up to a factor poly-logarithmic with the action…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-05 Pierre Perrault , Etienne Boursier , Vianney Perchet , Michal Valko

In machine learning models, the estimation of errors is often complex due to distribution bias, particularly in spatial data such as those found in environmental studies. We introduce an approach based on the ideas of importance sampling to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Boris Prokhorov , Diana Koldasbayeva , Alexey Zaytsev

The Gaussian process bandit is a problem in which we want to find a maximizer of a black-box function with the minimum number of function evaluations. If the black-box function varies with time, then time-varying Bayesian optimization is a…

Modern stochastic optimization methods often rely on uniform sampling which is agnostic to the underlying characteristics of the data. This might degrade the convergence by yielding estimates that suffer from a high variance. A possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Zalán Borsos , Andreas Krause , Kfir Y. Levy

Personalised discount codes provide a powerful mechanism for managing customer relationships and operational spend in e-commerce. Bandits are well suited for this product area, given the partial information nature of the problem, as well as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Jason Shuo Zhang , Benjamin Howson , Panayiota Savva , Eleanor Loh