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Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Yunyi Zhang , Efstathios Paparoditis , Dimitris N. Politis

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Robert Lunde , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Recent advances in molecular simulations allow the evaluation of previously unattainable observables, such as rate constants for protein folding. However, these calculations are usually computationally expensive and even significant…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-27 Barmak Mostofian , Daniel M. Zuckerman

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-15 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Serena Ng

Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate or relatively large number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. This paper establishes testing procedures to detect a possible common change in means of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-07 Barbora Peštová , Michal Pešta

In pharmaceutical and toxicological research, historical control data are increasingly used to validate concurrent control groups, typically via the construction of historical control limits. While methods have been described for continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Sören Budig , Frank Schaarschmidt , Max Menssen

The paper establishes the central limit theorems and proposes how to perform valid inference in factor models. We consider a setting where many counties/regions/assets are observed for many time periods, and when estimation of a global…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-22 Stanislav Anatolyev , Anna Mikusheva

Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…

Assessing whether two patient populations exhibit comparable event dynamics is essential for evaluating treatment equivalence, pooling data across cohorts, or comparing clinical pathways across hospitals or strategies. We introduce a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Zoe Kristin Lange , Maryam Farhadizadeh , Holger Dette , Nadine Binder

We derive a Gaussian approximation result for the maximum of a sum of high-dimensional random vectors. Specifically, we establish conditions under which the distribution of the maximum is approximated by that of the maximum of a sum of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Kengo Kato

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Nevertheless, in studies that are aimed at examining adverse effects of interventions, such trials are often impractical because of ethical and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Anthony D. Scotina , Andrew R. Zullo , Robert J. Smith , Roee Gutman

The latent class model is a powerful unsupervised clustering algorithm for categorical data. Many statistics exist to test the fit of the latent class model. However, traditional methods to evaluate those fit statistics are not always…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 Geert H. van Kollenburg , Joris Mulder , Jeroen K. Vermunt

We consider bootstrap inference for estimators which are (asymptotically) biased. We show that, even when the bias term cannot be consistently estimated, valid inference can be obtained by proper implementations of the bootstrap.…

An algorithm is described that enables efficient deterministic approximate computation of the bootstrap distribution for any linear bootstrap method $T_n^*$, alleviating the need for repeated resampling from observations (resp.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-10 Thomas Pitschel

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier

A multiplier bootstrap procedure for construction of likelihood-based confidence sets is considered for finite samples and a possible model misspecification. Theoretical results justify the bootstrap validity for a small or moderate sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-18 Vladimir Spokoiny , Mayya Zhilova

This paper deals with the Gaussian and bootstrap approximations to the distribution of the max statistic in high dimensions. This statistic takes the form of the maximum over components of the sum of independent random vectors and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-31 Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Kengo Kato , Yuta Koike

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Model misspecification is ubiquitous in data analysis because the data-generating process is often complex and mathematically intractable. Therefore, assessing estimation uncertainty and conducting statistical inference under a possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Rong Li , Yichen Qin , Yang Li

We present a general approach to constructing permutation tests that are both exact for the null hypothesis of equality of distributions and asymptotically correct for testing equality of parameters of distributions while allowing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-12 Colin B. Fogarty