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In this article we study and classify optimal martingales in the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems. In this respect we distinguish between weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales. It is shown that the family of weakly…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Denis Belomestny , John Schoenmakers

We theoretically analyse the limits of robustness to test-time adversarial and noisy examples in classification. Our work focuses on deriving bounds which uniformly apply to all classifiers (i.e all measurable functions from features to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-13 Elvis Dohmatob

We study stochastic dynamical systems in settings where only partial statistical information about the noise is available, e.g., in the form of a limited number of noise realizations. Such systems are particularly challenging to analyze and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Liviu Aolaritei , Nicolas Lanzetti , Florian Dörfler

This work presents a distributionally robust Kalman filter to address uncertainties in noise covariance matrices and predicted covariance estimates. We adopt a distributionally robust formulation using bicausal optimal transport to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Bingyan Han

Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization is widely used in offline decision-making and offers several benefits, motivating recent work on the sample complexity of offline learning with respect to KL-regularized performance metrics.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Kaixuan Ji , Qiwei Di , Heyang Zhao , Qingyue Zhao , Quanquan Gu

We study a regulation problem for stochastic systems subject to both continuous fluctuations and rare but significant shocks, modeled as a jump-diffusion with uncertainty in both the drift and the jump intensity. Such settings arise in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Abel Azze , Bernardo D'Auria , Giorgio Ferrari

We construct optimal low-rank approximations for the Gaussian posterior distribution in linear Gaussian inverse problems with possibly infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert parameter spaces and finite-dimensional data spaces. We first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-09 Giuseppe Carere , Han Cheng Lie

We consider optimal transport problems where the cost is optimized over controlled dynamics and the end time is free. Unlike the classical setting, the search for optimal transport plans also requires the identification of optimal "stopping…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-07-09 Nassif Ghoussoub , Young-Heon Kim , Aaron Zeff Palmer

This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-17 Louis Faury , Ugo Tanielian , Flavian Vasile , Elena Smirnova , Elvis Dohmatob

In recent years, two prominent paradigms have shaped distributionally robust optimization (DRO), modeling distributional ambiguity through $\phi$-divergences and Wasserstein distances, respectively. While the former focuses on ambiguity in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-22 Jose Blanchet , Daniel Kuhn , Jiajin Li , Bahar Taskesen

Optimization under uncertainty and risk is indispensable in many practical situations. Our paper addresses stability of optimization problems using composite risk functionals which are subjected to measure perturbations. Our main focus is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-06 Darinka Dentcheva , Yang Lin , Spiridon Penev

In this work, we study the $k$-median and $k$-means clustering problems when the data is distributed across many servers and can contain outliers. While there has been a lot of work on these problems for worst-case instances, we focus on…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-03-08 Pranjal Awasthi , Ainesh Bakshi , Maria-Florina Balcan , Colin White , David Woodruff

We investigate the problem of best-policy identification in discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) when the learner has access to a generative model. The objective is to devise a learning algorithm returning the best policy as early as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-11 Aymen Al Marjani , Alexandre Proutiere

We study the problem of bounding path-dependent expectations (within any finite time horizon $d$) over the class of discrete-time martingales whose marginal distributions lie within a prescribed tolerance of a given collection of benchmark…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-01 Zhengqing Zhou , Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn

Trajectory optimization and model predictive control are essential techniques underpinning advanced robotic applications, ranging from autonomous driving to full-body humanoid control. State-of-the-art algorithms have focused on data-driven…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-15 Hany Abdulsamad , Tim Dorau , Boris Belousov , Jia-Jie Zhu , Jan Peters

In this paper, we study an optimal stopping problem in the presence of model uncertainty and regime switching. The max-min formulation for robust control and the dynamic programming approach are adopted to establish a general theoretical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Siyu Lv , Zhen Wu , Jie Xiong , Xin Zhang

We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Jose Blanchet , Fei He , Karthyek R. A. Murthy

We focus on one-sided, mixture-based stopping rules for the problem of sequential testing a simple null hypothesis against a composite alternative. For the latter, we consider two cases---either a discrete alternative or a continuous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-25 Georgios Fellouris , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Robust Bayesian linear regression is a classical but essential statistical tool. Although novel robustness properties of posterior distributions have been proved recently under a certain class of error distributions, their sufficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Good robust estimators can be tuned to combine a high breakdown point and a specified asymptotic efficiency at a central model. This happens in regression with MM- and tau-estimators among others. However, the finite-sample efficiency of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Ricardo Maronna , Víctor Yohai