Related papers: ProCause: Generating Counterfactual Outcomes to Ev…

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Process Mining consists of techniques where logs created by operative systems are transformed into process models. In process mining tools it is often desired to be able to classify ongoing process instances, e.g., to predict how long the…

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a practical tool for demonstrating why machine learning classifiers make particular decisions. For CEs to be useful, it is important that they are easy for users to interpret. Existing methods for…

Generating high-quality synthetic time series is a fundamental yet challenging task across domains such as forecasting and anomaly detection, where real data can be scarce, noisy, or costly to collect. Unlike static data generation,…

Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Soft sensor modeling plays a crucial role in process monitoring. Causal feature selection can enhance the performance of soft sensor models in industrial applications. However, existing methods ignore two critical characteristics of…

LLM-based social simulations can generate believable community interactions, enabling ``policy wind tunnels'' where governance interventions are tested before deployment. But believability is not causality. Claims like ``intervention $A$…

Machine maintenance is a challenging operational problem, where the goal is to plan sufficient preventive maintenance to avoid machine failures and overhauls. Maintenance is often imperfect in reality and does not make the asset as good as…

Causal inference is a statistical paradigm for quantifying causal effects using observational data. It is a complex process, requiring multiple steps, iterations, and collaborations with domain experts. Analysts often rely on visualizations…

Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate…

Research on causal effects often relies on synthetic data due to the scarcity of real-world datasets with ground-truth effects. Since current data-generating tools do not always meet all requirements for state-of-the-art research, ad-hoc…

Process Reward Models (PRMs) emerge as a promising approach for process supervision in mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs), which aim to identify and mitigate intermediate errors in the reasoning processes. However, the…

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal…

Proactive agents must decide not only what to say but also whether and when to intervene. Many current systems rely on brittle heuristics or indiscriminate long reasoning, which offers little control over the benefit-burden tradeoff. We…

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

High-risk industries like nuclear and aviation use real-time monitoring to detect dangerous system conditions. Similarly, Large Language Models (LLMs) need monitoring safeguards. We propose a real-time framework to predict harmful AI…

DEEPTHINK methods improve reasoning by generating, refining, and aggregating populations of candidate solutions, which enables strong performance on complex mathematical and scientific tasks. However, existing frameworks often lack reliable…