Related papers: Bayesian and Multi-Objective Decision Support for …

With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…

Structural break identification methods are an important tool for evaluating the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we introduce a unified probabilistic framework for detecting structural breaks with unknown…

Active distribution networks facilitating bidirectional power exchange with renewable energy resources are susceptible to cyberattacks due to integration of a diverse array of cyber components. This study introduces a grid-level defense…

Before autonomous systems can be deployed in safety-critical applications, we must be able to understand and verify the safety of these systems. For cases where the risk or cost of real-world testing is prohibitive, we propose a…

The vulnerability of machine learning models to adversarial attacks remains a critical security challenge. Traditional defenses, such as adversarial training, typically robustify models by minimizing a worst-case loss. However, these…

In the dynamic cyber threat landscape, effective decision-making under uncertainty is crucial for maintaining robust information security. This paper introduces the Cyber Resilience Index (CRI), a threat-informed probabilistic approach to…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

This paper studies the performance and resilience of a linear cyber-physical control system (CPCS) with attack detection and reactive attack mitigation in the context of power grids. It addresses the problem of deriving an optimal sequence…

Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) in modern real-time applications integrate numerous control units linked through communication networks, each responsible for executing a mix of real-time safety-critical and non-critical tasks. To ensure…

Cyber incident response is critical to business continuity -- we describe a new exercise that challenges professionals to play the role of Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) for a major financial organisation. Teams must decide how…

This paper studies the performance and resilience of a cyber-physical control system (CPCS) with attack detection and reactive attack mitigation. It addresses the problem of deriving an optimal sequence of false data injection attacks that…

Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as…

While attack graphs are useful for identifying major cybersecurity threats affecting a system, they do not provide operational support for determining the likelihood of having a known vulnerability exploited, or that critical system nodes…

Cyber risk has become a critical financial threat in today's interconnected digital economy. This paper introduces a cyber-risk management framework for networked digital systems that combines the strategic behavior of players with…

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a highly effective tool for the safe online optimization of systems, due to its high sample efficiency and noise robustness. To further enhance its efficiency, reduced physical models of the system can…

This article presents a closed-loop, uncertainty-aware framework for defending a protected zone against coordinated incursions by swarms of small uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). The interaction structure of the attackers is modeled as…

An approach is proposed to identify optimal asset protection strategies based on vulnerability assessment outcomes. Traditional bilevel attacker-defender models emphasize worst-case scenarios but offer limited defensive guidance. In…

When investing in cyber security resources, information security managers have to follow effective decision-making strategies. We refer to this as the cyber security investment challenge. In this paper, we consider three possible…

This study presents a framework for assessing urban critical infrastructure resilience during extreme events, such as hurricanes. The approach combines GIS and network analysis with open remote sensing data of the aftermath, vector data on…

Geographically High-Available (Geo-HA) cluster systems are essential for service continuity in distributed cloud-native environments. However, traditional arbitration mechanisms, which are often predicated on deterministic node-level…