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We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-07 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

Many variables of interest in clinical medicine, like disease severity, are recorded using discrete ordinal categories such as normal/mild/moderate/severe. These labels are used to train and evaluate disease severity prediction models.…

The safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes fields like biomedicine, requires them to be able to reason about cause and effect. We investigate this ability by testing 13 open-source LLMs on a fundamental task:…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Sydney Anuyah , Sneha Shajee-Mohan , Ankit-Singh Chauhan , Sunandan Chakraborty

This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Huan Wu

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a challenging task that relies on assumptions connecting statistical quantities to graphical or algebraic causal models. In this work, we focus on widely employed assumptions for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Instrumental variables have proven useful, in particular within the social sciences and economics, for making inference about the causal effect of a random variable, B, on another random variable, C, in the presence of unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-26 Roland R. Ramsahai

Causality has the potential to truly transform the way we solve a large number of real-world problems. Yet, so far, its potential largely remains to be unlocked as causality often requires crucial assumptions which cannot be tested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Jeroen Berrevoets , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal discovery from data affected by unobserved variables is an important but difficult problem to solve. The effects that unobserved variables have on the relationships between observed variables are more complex in nonlinear cases than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

A fundamental challenge of scientific research is inferring causal relations based on observed data. One commonly used approach involves utilizing structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among interacting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-13 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Causal representation learning (CRL) aims at recovering latent causal variables from high-dimensional observations to solve causal downstream tasks, such as predicting the effect of new interventions or more robust classification. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Dingling Yao , Dario Rancati , Riccardo Cadei , Marco Fumero , Francesco Locatello

Causal discovery from observational data is an important tool in many branches of science. Under certain assumptions it allows scientists to explain phenomena, predict, and make decisions. In the large sample limit, sound and complete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-13 Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Raanan Y. Rohekar , Gal Novik

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Different attribution scores have been proposed to quantify the relevance of database tuples for query answering in databases; e.g. Causal Responsibility, the Shapley Value, the Banzhaf Power-Index, and the Causal Effect. They have been…

Databases · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Felipe Azua , Leopoldo Bertossi

Robust feature selection is vital for creating reliable and interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models. When designing statistical prediction models in cases where domain knowledge is limited and underlying interactions are unknown,…

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Linear structural equation models represent direct causal effects as directed edges and confounding factors as bidirected edges. An open problem is to identify the causal parameters from correlations between the nodes. We investigate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-03-07 Benito van der Zander , Marcel Wienöbst , Markus Bläser , Maciej Liśkiewicz

Using deep latent variable models in causal inference has attracted considerable interest recently, but an essential open question is their ability to yield consistent causal estimates. While they have demonstrated promising results and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Severi Rissanen , Pekka Marttinen

Causal discovery procedures aim to deduce causal relationships among variables in a multivariate dataset. While various methods have been proposed for estimating a single causal model or a single equivalence class of models, less attention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Y. Samuel Wang , Mladen Kolar , Mathias Drton