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Machine learning models are often evaluated using point estimates of performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, or mean squared error. Such summaries fail to capture the inherent variability induced by stochastic elements of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Christoph Lehmann , Yahor Paromau

We consider a Markov chain of point processes such that each state is a super position of an independent cluster process with the previous state as its centre process together with some independent noise process. The model extends earlier…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-24 Jesper Møller , Andreas D. Christoffersen

A new type of dependent thinning for point processes in continuous space is proposed, which leverages the advantages of determinantal point processes defined on finite spaces and, as such, is particularly amenable to statistical, numerical,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Bartłomiej Błaszczyszyn , Paul Keeler

The smoothing distribution is the conditional distribution of the diffusion process in the space of trajectories given noisy observations made continuously in time. It is generally difficult to sample from this distribution. We use the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-07 Oskar Eklund , Annika Lang , Moritz Schauer

We consider the problem of learning two families of time-evolving random measures from indirect observations. In the first model, the signal is a Fleming--Viot diffusion, which is reversible with respect to the law of a Dirichlet process,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-19 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Matteo Ruggiero , Dario Spanò

We begin by reviewing some probabilistic results about the Dirichlet Process and its close relatives, focussing on their implications for statistical modelling and analysis. We then introduce a class of simple mixture models in which…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-03-23 Peter J. Green

Order statistics theory is applied in this paper to probabilistic robust control theory to compute the minimum sample size needed to come up with a reliable estimate of an uncertain quantity under continuity assumption of the related…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-13 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou

In this paper, we give sufficient conditions to establish central limit theorems for boundary estimates of Poisson point processes. The considered estimates are obtained by smoothing some bias corrected extreme values of the point process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Ludovic Menneteau

In this work, we define the notion of unimodular random measured metric spaces as a common generalization of various other notions. This includes the discrete cases like unimodular graphs and stationary point processes, as well as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-07 Ali Khezeli

We present a novel Bayesian framework for inverse problems in which the pos terior distribution is interpreted as the intensity measure of a Poisson point process (PPP). The posterior density is approximated using kernel density estimation,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-08 Zhiliang Deng , Zhiyuan Wang , Xiaomei Yang , Xiaofei Guan

The statistical problem of parameter estimation in partially observed hypoelliptic diffusion processes is naturally occurring in many applications. However, due to the noise structure, where the noise components of the different coordinates…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-13 Susanne Ditlevsen , Adeline Samson

This paper concerns the use of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for inference in partially observed diffusion processes. In this context, a well known problem is that all except a few diffusion processes lack closed-form…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-18 Jimmy Olsson , Jonas Ströjby

Limit distributions for the greatest convex minorant and its derivative are considered for a general class of stochastic processes including partial sum processes and empirical processes, for independent, weakly dependent and long range…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 D. Anevski , O. Hössjer

We study how the two-point density correlation properties of a point particle distribution are modified when each particle is divided, by a stochastic process, into an equal number of identical "daughter" particles. We consider generically…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Andrea Gabrielli , Michael Joyce

Denoising diffusions sample from a probability distribution $\mu$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ by constructing a stochastic process $({\hat{\boldsymbol x}}_t:t\ge 0)$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that ${\hat{\boldsymbol x}}_0$ is easy to sample, but the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-09 Andrea Montanari , Viet Vu

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-01 Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk , Carl E. Rasmussen

Heuristics indicate that point processes exhibiting clustering of points have larger critical radius $r_c$ for the percolation of their continuum percolation models than spatially homogeneous point processes. It has already been shown, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-19 B. Blaszczyszyn , D. Yogeshwaran

To accurately quantify landslide hazard in a region of Turkey, we develop new marked point process models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework for the joint prediction of landslide counts and sizes. To accommodate for the dominant role…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Rishikesh Yadav , Raphaël Huser , Thomas Opitz , Luigi Lombardo

We present new Poisson process approximation results for stabilizing functionals of Poisson and binomial point processes. These functionals are allowed to have an unbounded range of interaction and encompass many examples in stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Omer Bobrowski , Matthias Schulte , D. Yogeshwaran

We study point processes on $\mathbb S^d$, the $d$-dimensional unit sphere $\mathbb S^d$, considering both the isotropic and the anisotropic case, and focusing mostly on the spherical case $d=2$. The first part studies reduced Palm…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-14 Jesper Møller , Ege Rubak
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