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Structural Causal Models (SCMs) offer a principled framework to reason about interventions and support out-of-distribution generalization, which are key goals in scientific discovery. However, the task of learning SCMs from observed data…

We introduce a surrogate-based black-box optimization method, termed Polynomial-model-based optimization (PMBO). The algorithm alternates polynomial approximation with Bayesian optimization steps, using Gaussian processes to model the error…

In distributed, or privacy-preserving learning, we are often given a set of probabilistic models estimated from different local repositories, and asked to combine them into a single model that gives efficient statistical estimation. A…

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are of interest from an explainable AI viewpoint, offering transparent probabilistic models for decision support. Baymex is a recently introduced multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for learning discretized BNs,…

Machine learning classification techniques have been used widely to recognize the feasible design domain and discover hidden patterns in engineering design. An accurate classification model needs a large dataset; however, generating a large…

In Continual Learning (CL), a model is required to learn a stream of tasks sequentially without significant performance degradation on previously learned tasks. Current approaches fail for a long sequence of tasks from diverse domains and…

Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control method that handles dynamical systems with constraints. However, solving MPC iteratively in real time, i.e., implicit MPC, remains a computational challenge. To address this, common…

Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set…

Variational inference methods have been shown to lead to significant improvements in the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian inference in mixed multinomial logit models when compared to standard Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

In recent years, neural network-based classification has been used to improve data analysis at collider experiments. While this strategy proves to be hugely successful, the underlying models are not commonly shared with the public and rely…

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…

Checking how well a fitted model explains the data is one of the most fundamental parts of a Bayesian data analysis. However, existing model checking methods suffer from trade-offs between being well-calibrated, automated, and…

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful computational approach for studying complex biological and biomedical systems, yet its widespread use remains limited by significant computational demands. As models become increasingly…

Multi-armed bandit (MAB) is a widely adopted framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Traditional bandit algorithms rely solely on online data, which tends to be scarce as it must be gathered during the online phase when…

In offline data-driven multi-objective optimization (MOO), optimization is performed using surrogate models trained only on an offline dataset. These surrogate models contain inherent errors and uncertainty. This epistemic uncertainty can…

Faced with problems of increasing complexity, recent research in Bayesian Optimisation (BO) has focused on adapting deep probabilistic models as flexible alternatives to Gaussian Processes (GPs). In a similar vein, this paper investigates…

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems typically relies on posterior sampling approaches, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, for which the generation of each sample requires one or more evaluations of the parameter-to-observable map or…

Prominent features of simulated moving bed (SMB) chromatography processes in the downstream processing is based on the determination of operating conditions. However, effects of different types of uncertainties have to be studied and…

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…