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Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Daniel Dempsey , Jason Wyse

Learning controllable and generalizable representation of multivariate data with desired structural properties remains a fundamental problem in machine learning. In this paper, we present a novel framework for learning generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-05 Ruixiang Zhang , Masanori Koyama , Katsuhiko Ishiguro

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Missing data is a ubiquitous challenge in data analysis, often leading to biased and inaccurate results. Traditional imputation methods usually assume that the missingness mechanism is missing-at-random (MAR), where the missingness is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Huiming Xie , Fei Xue , Xiao Wang

Causal representation learning seeks to uncover causal relationships among high-level latent variables from low-level, entangled, and noisy observations. Existing approaches often either rely on deep neural networks, which lack…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Wenjin Zhang , Yixin Wang , Yuqi Gu

Causal models with unobserved variables impose nontrivial constraints on the distributions over the observed variables. When a common cause of two variables is unobserved, it is impossible to uncover the causal relation between them without…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Beata Zjawin , Elie Wolfe , Robert W. Spekkens

The estimation of linear causal models (also known as structural equation models) from data is a well-known problem which has received much attention in the past. Most previous work has, however, made an explicit or implicit assumption of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Patrik O. Hoyer , Shohei Shimizu , Antti J. Kerminen

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Matthew J. Vowels

Modern biomedical datasets are increasingly high dimensional and exhibit complex correlation structures. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) have long been employed to account for such dependencies. However, proper specification of the…

Time series imputation is one of the most challenge problems and has broad applications in various fields like health care and the Internet of Things. Existing methods mainly aim to model the temporally latent dependencies and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Ruichu Cai , Kaitao Zheng , Junxian Huang , Zijian Li , Zhengming Chen , Boyan Xu , Zhifeng Hao

Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational…

Given a response $Y$ and a vector $X = (X^1, \dots, X^d)$ of $d$ predictors, we investigate the problem of inferring direct causes of $Y$ among the vector $X$. Models for $Y$ that use all of its causal covariates as predictors enjoy the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Rune Christiansen , Jonas Peters

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-13 Konstantinos P. Panousis , Sotirios Chatzis , Sergios Theodoridis

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for…

We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Kyongmin Yeo , Dylan E. C. Grullon , Fan-Keng Sun , Duane S. Boning , Jayant R. Kalagnanam

Latent variable models are powerful statistical tools that can uncover relevant variation between patients or cells, by inferring unobserved hidden states from observable high-dimensional data. A major shortcoming of current methods,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-12 Arber Qoku , Florian Buettner

Causal disentanglement aims to learn about latent causal factors behind data, holding the promise to augment existing representation learning methods in terms of interpretability and extrapolation. Recent advances establish identifiability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Ryan Welch , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Minghao Fu , Biwei Huang , Zijian Li , Yujia Zheng , Ignavier Ng , Guangyi Chen , Yingyao Hu , Kun Zhang