Related papers: Should one (be allowed to) replace the Cippolini's…
Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is…
1. Animal movement patterns contribute to our understanding of variation in breeding success and survival of individuals, and the implications for population dynamics. 2. Over time, sensor technology for measuring movement patterns has…
Recently, UEFA changed the group stage of its international soccer competitions to an incomplete round robin tournament. Previously, teams were divided into groups, each playing a double round robin tournament with a resulting ranking…
We study the ranking of individuals, teams, or objects, based on pairwise comparisons between them, using the Bradley-Terry model. Estimates of rankings within this model are commonly made using a simple iterative algorithm first introduced…
Two natural ways of modelling Formula 1 race outcomes are a probabilistic approach, based on the exponential distribution, and econometric modelling of the ranks. Both approaches lead to exactly soluble race-winning probabilities. Equating…
Our aim is to present a new model which encompasses pace optimization and motor control effort for a runner on a fixed distance. We see that for long races, the long term behaviour is well approximated by a turnpike problem. We provide…
This paper introduces a contest-theoretic simplified model of triathlon as a sequential two-stage game. In Stage 1 (post-swim), participants decide whether to continue or withdraw from the contest, thereby generating an endogenous…
Most clinical prediction studies are developed from retrospective cohorts and reported as if all patient information were observed at once. In practice, clinicians face a more consequential question: \emph{when is there already enough…
Inequality measures provide a valuable tool for the analysis, comparison, and optimization based on system models. This work studies the relation between attributes or features of an individual to understand how redundant, unique, and…
We consider two-stage robust optimization problems, which can be seen as games between a decision maker and an adversary. After the decision maker fixes part of the solution, the adversary chooses a scenario from a specified uncertainty…
Recently noticed ability of restart to reduce the expected completion time of first-passage processes allows appealing opportunities for performance improvement in a variety of settings. However, complex stochastic processes often exhibit…
This paper discusses match result prediction ability of ATP ranking points, which is official ranking points for men's professional tennis players. The structure of overall ATP World Tour and the ranking point attribution system leads that…
Kelly's criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes the long term growth rate, but which is known to be risky. Here, we find optimal betting strategies that gives the highest capital growth rate while keeping a certain low value of risky…
Evolutionary dynamics provides an iconic relationship --- the periodic frequency of a game is determined by the payoff matrix of the game. This paper reports the first experimental evidence to demonstrate this relationship. Evidence comes…
In randomized trials with continuous-valued outcomes the goal is often to estimate the difference in average outcomes between two treatment groups. However, the outcome in some trials is longitudinal, meaning that multiple measurements of…
We describe a duality mapping between STRIPS planning tasks. By exchanging the initial and goal conditions, taking their respective complements, and swapping for every action its precondition and delete list, one obtains for every STRIPS…
This paper examines strategic effort and positioning choices resulting in bandwagon effects under externalities in finite multi-stage games using causal evidence from triathlon (Reichel, 2025). Focusing on open-water swim drafting where…
In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly…
In preliminary analysis of control charts, one may encounter multiple shifts and/or outliers especially with a large number of observations. The following paper addresses this problem. A statistical model for detecting and estimating…
We study piecewise affine policies for multi-stage adjustable robust optimization (ARO) problems with non-negative right-hand side uncertainty. First, we construct new dominating uncertainty sets and show how a multi-stage ARO problem can…