Related papers: A Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal GARCH Model: A Pred…
We introduce a dynamical spatio-temporal model formalized as a recurrent neural network for forecasting time series of spatial processes, i.e. series of observations sharing temporal and spatial dependencies. The model learns these…
This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model…
Predicting the future price trends of stocks is a challenging yet intriguing problem given its critical role to help investors make profitable decisions. In this paper, we present a collaborative temporal-relational modeling framework for…
Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data.…
Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct…
This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…
This paper focuses on modeling the dynamic attributes of a dynamic network with a fixed number of vertices. These attributes are considered as time series which dependency structure is influenced by the underlying network. They are modeled…
Spatio-temporal processes often exhibit highly heterogeneous and non-intuitive responses to localized disruptions, limiting the effectiveness of conventional message passing approaches in modeling local heterogeneity. We reformulate…
With rapid expansion of cellular networks and the proliferation of mobile devices, cellular traffic data exhibits complex temporal dynamics and spatial correlations, posing challenges to accurate traffic prediction. Previous methods often…
Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…
Traffic prediction has drawn increasing attention in AI research field due to the increasing availability of large-scale traffic data and its importance in the real world. For example, an accurate taxi demand prediction can assist taxi…
This paper introduces a unique and valuable research design aimed at analyzing Bitcoin price volatility. To achieve this, a range of models from the Markov Switching-GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility (SARV) model classes are…
Neural forecasting of spatiotemporal time series drives both research and industrial innovation in several relevant application domains. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are often the core component of the forecasting architecture. However, in…
Circular data arise in many areas of application. Recently, there has been interest in looking at circular data collected separately over time and over space. Here, we extend some of this work to the spatio-temporal setting, introducing…
This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional…
A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…
We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily…
Study of instantaneous dependence among several variable is important in many of the high-dimensional sciences. Multivariate GARCH models are as a standard approach for modelling time-varying covariance matrix such phenomena. Cholesky GARCH…
Spatial-temporal network traffic forecasting is a challenging task due to the complex spatial relationships and dynamic temporal patterns present in each node. Traditional regression methods are not directly applicable to such graph data.…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…