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In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-09 Smita Deb , Zheng-Meng Zhai , Mulugeta Haile , Ying-Cheng Lai

Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task, examples include ecosystems, financial markets, complex diseases, etc. In this paper, we…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-03-23 Yogita Sharma , Partha Sharathi Dutta , A. K. Gupta

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-19 Peter D. Ditlevsen , Susanne Ditlevsen

This paper proposes a unified family of learnable Koopman operator parameterizations that integrate linear dynamical systems theory with modern deep learning forecasting architectures. We introduce four learnable Koopman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Ali Forootani , Raffaele Iervolino

Networks are landmarks of many complex phenomena where interweaving interactions between different agents transform simple local rule-sets into nonlinear emergent behaviors. While some recent studies unveil associations between the network…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-05 Ali Tavasoli , Teague Henry , Heman Shakeri

In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-22 Joshua Looker , Kat S. Rock , Louise Dyson

The Koopman operator and its data-driven approximations, such as extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), are widely used for analysing, modelling, and controlling nonlinear dynamical systems. However, when the true Koopman…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-02-05 Roland Schurig , Pieter van Goor , Karl Worthmann , Rolf Findeisen

Time-dependent structural reliability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems is non-trivial; subsequently, scope of most of the structural reliability analysis methods is limited to time-independent reliability analysis only. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-21 Navaneeth N. , Souvik Chakraborty

Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Lucia S. Layritz , Ilya Pavlyukevich , Anja Rammig , Christian Kuehn

In this work, we propose to apply the recently developed Koopman operator techniques to explore the global phase space of a nonlinear system from time-series data. In particular, we address the problem of identifying various invariant…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-10-09 Sai Pushpak Nandanoori , Subhrajit Sinha , Enoch Yeung

This paper uses data-driven operator theoretic approaches to explore the global phase space of a dynamical system. We defined conditions for discovering new invariant subspaces in the state space of a dynamical system starting from an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Sai Pushpak Nandanoori , Subhrajit Sinha , Enoch Yeung

We study the tipping point collective dynamics of an adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological network in a data-driven, machine learning-assisted manner. We identify a parameter-dependent effective stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Nikolaos Evangelou , Tianqi Cui , Juan M. Bello-Rivas , Alexei Makeev , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-06-04 Peter Ashwin , Robbin Bastiaansen , Anna S. von der Heydt , Paul Ritchie

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-05-30 Carl Boettiger , Noam Ross , Alan Hastings

This paper proposes a Koopman-based framework for modeling, prediction, and control of unknown nonlinear time-varying systems. We present a novel Koopman-based learning method for predicting the state of unknown nonlinear time-varying…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-30 Hengde Zhang , Yunxiao Ren , Zhisheng Duan , Zhiyong Sun , Guanrong Chen

Tipping points have been actively studied in various applications as well as from a mathematical viewpoint. A main technique to theoretically understand early-warning signs for tipping points is to use the framework of fast-slow stochastic…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2018-08-29 Francesco Romano , Christian Kuehn

We study the evolution of distributions under the action of an ergodic dynamical system, which may be stochastic in nature. By employing tools from Koopman and transfer operator theory one can evolve any initial distribution of the state…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-22 Prune Inzerilli , Vladimir Kostic , Karim Lounici , Pietro Novelli , Massimiliano Pontil

This paper tackles the data-driven approximation of unknown dynamical systems using Koopman-operator methods. Given a dictionary of functions, these methods approximate the projection of the action of the operator on the finite-dimensional…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-28 Masih Haseli , Jorge Cortés

Tipping elements in the Earth System receive increased scientific attention over the recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-10-25 Jan Kohler , Nico Wunderling , Jonathan F. Donges , Jürgen Vollmer

It is hard to identify nonlinear biological models strictly from data, with results that are often sensitive to experimental conditions. Automated experimental workflows and liquid handling enables unprecedented throughput, as well as the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Nibodh Boddupalli , Aqib Hasnain , Sai Pushpak Nandanoori , Enoch Yeung