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This paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in randomized experiments. We adopt inverse probability weighting (IPW) for identification; however, IPW-transformed outcomes are known to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-14 Mingqian Guan , Komei Fujita , Naoya Sueishi , Shota Yasui

Gun violence is a major source of injury and death in the United States. However, relatively little is known about the effects of firearm injuries on survivors and their family members and how these effects vary across subpopulations. To…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-04 Eric R. Cohn , Zirui Song , Jose R. Zubizarreta

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Divyat Mahajan , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Brady Neal , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Treatment effect heterogeneity occurs when individual characteristics influence the effect of a treatment. We propose a novel approach that combines prognostic score matching and conditional inference trees to characterize effect…

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

To estimate casual treatment effects, we propose a new matching approach based on the reduced covariates obtained from sufficient dimension reduction. Compared to the original covariates and the propensity score, which are commonly used for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-03 Wei Luo , Yeying Zhu

Estimating the mean counterfactual outcome under a treatment rule is a central problem in causal inference and policy evaluation. Standard estimators, including inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Yichen Xu , Mark J. van der Laan

Motivated by applications in precision medicine and treatment effect heterogeneity, recent research has focused on estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) using machine learning (ML). CATE estimates may represent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Oliver J. Hines , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

Estimating causal effects with propensity scores relies upon the availability of treated and untreated units observed at each value of the estimated propensity score. In settings with strong confounding, limited so-called "overlap" in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-25 Corwin M Zigler , Matthew Cefalu

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a flexible machine learning algorithm capable of capturing nonlinearities between an outcome and covariates and interaction among covariates. We extend BART to a semiparametric regression…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-13 Bret Zeldow , Vincent Lo Re , Jason Roy

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects has become increasingly important in many fields and life and death decisions are now based on these estimates: for example, selecting a personalized course of medical treatment. Recently, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Sören R. Künzel , Simon J. S. Walter , Jasjeet S. Sekhon

Genetic association analyses often involve data from multiple potentially-heterogeneous subgroups. The expected amount of heterogeneity can vary from modest (e.g., a typical meta-analysis) to large (e.g., a strong gene--environment…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-15 Xiaoquan Wen , Matthew Stephens

We study variants of the average treatment effect on the treated with population parameters replaced by their sample counterparts. For each estimand, we derive the limiting distribution with respect to a semiparametric efficient estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-12 Andrew Yiu

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered to detect treatment heterogeneity in subgroups defined by cross-classifications of multiple covariates, due to sparse sample sizes in some strata. External RCT data can help, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Youqi Yang , Walter Dempsey , Bhramar Mukherjee

Population genetics seeks to quantify DNA variant associations with traits or diseases, as well as interactions among variants and with environmental factors. Computing millions of estimates in large cohorts in which small effect sizes are…

Individualized treatment rules (ITR) can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-25 Brent R. Logan , Rodney Sparapani , Robert E. McCulloch , Purushottam W. Laud

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-22 Steve Yadlowsky , Fabio Pellegrini , Federica Lionetto , Stefan Braune , Lu Tian