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On April 22, 2020, the CME Group switched to Bachelier pricing for a group of oil futures options. The Bachelier model, or more generally the arithmetic Brownian motion (ABM), is not so widely used in finance, though. This paper provides…
In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of…
We derive explicit formulas for time decay, for the European call and put options at expiry, and use them to calculate analytical approximations to the price of the American put and early exercise boundary near expiry. We show that for many…
We introduce a class of models for multidimensional control problems which we call skip-free Markov decision processes on trees. We describe and analyse an algorithm applicable to Markov decision processes of this type that are skip-free in…
The paper proposes a new variant of a decision tree, called an Extreme Learning Tree. It consists of an extremely random tree with non-linear data transformation, and a linear observer that provides predictions based on the leaf index where…
Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty…
This paper provides a methodology for fast and accurate pricing of the long-dated contracts that arise as the building blocks of insurance and pension fund agreements. It applies the recursive marginal quantization (RMQ) and joint recursive…
We present a parallel algorithm that computes the ask and bid prices of an American option when proportional transaction costs apply to the trading of the underlying asset. The algorithm computes the prices on recombining binomial trees,…
We study the valuation of an American put option with a random time horizon given by the last exit time of the underlying asset from a fixed level. Since this random time is not a stopping time, the problem falls outside the classical…
In this article, we employ physics-informed residual learning (PIRL) and propose a pricing method for European options under a regime-switching framework, where closed-form solutions are not available. We demonstrate that the proposed…
Using spectral decomposition techniques and singular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method to approximate the prices of a variety of options in a fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility setting. Four examples are provided in…
In this paper we extend discrete time semi-static trading strategies by also allowing for dynamic trading in a finite amount of options, and we study the consequences for the model-independent super-replication prices of exotic derivatives.…
Despite the fact that an intraday market price distribution is not normal, the random walk model of price behaviour is as important for the understanding of basic principles of the market as the pendulum model is a starting point of many…
Within a path integral formalism for non-Gaussian price fluctuations we set up a simple stochastic calculus and derive a natural martingale for option pricing from the wealth balance of options, stocks, and bonds. The resulting formula is…
A new method for stochastic control based on neural networks and using randomisation of discrete random variables is proposed and applied to optimal stopping time problems. The method models directly the policy and does not need the…
We develop a theory for pricing non-diversifiable mortality risk in an incomplete market. We do this by assuming that the company issuing a mortality-contingent claim requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified…
We seek decision rules for prediction-time cost reduction, where complete data is available for training, but during prediction-time, each feature can only be acquired for an additional cost. We propose a novel random forest algorithm to…
This paper concerns the design of a Fourier based pseudospectral numerical method for the model of European Option Pricing with transaction costs under Exponential Utility derived by Davis, Panas and Zariphopoulou. Computing the option…
In the present paper we fill an essential gap in the Convertible Bonds pricing world by deriving a Binary Tree based model for valuation subject to credit risk. This model belongs to the framework known as Equity to Credit Risk. We show…
We construct a binomial tree model fitting all moments to the approximated geometric Brownian motion. Our construction generalizes the classical Cox-Ross-Rubinstein, the Jarrow-Rudd, and the Tian binomial tree models. The new binomial model…