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For complex simulation problems, inferring parameters often precludes the use of classical likelihood-based techniques due to intractable likelihoods. Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods offer a likelihood-free approach to directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Haley Rosso , Talea Mayo

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Sam Griesemer , Defu Cao , Zijun Cui , Carolina Osorio , Yan Liu

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

Identifying tire and vehicle parameters is an essential step in designing control and planning algorithms for autonomous vehicles. This paper proposes a new method: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), a modern interpretation of Approximate…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-08-30 Ali Boyali , Simon Thompson , David Robert Wong

Recent advances in probabilistic deep learning enable efficient amortized Bayesian inference in settings where the likelihood function is only implicitly defined by a simulation program (simulation-based inference; SBI). But how faithful is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Marvin Schmitt , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Ullrich Köthe , Stefan T. Radev

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Atrideb Chatterjee , Arghya Choudhury , Sourav Mitra , Arpita Mondal , Subhadeep Mondal

Simulation-based inference (SBI) solves statistical inverse problems by repeatedly running a stochastic simulator and inferring posterior distributions from model-simulations. To improve simulation efficiency, several inference methods take…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-11 Michael Deistler , Pedro J Goncalves , Jakob H Macke

Identifying the parameters of a non-linear model that best explain observed data is a core task across scientific fields. When such models rely on complex simulators, evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, making traditional…

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) methods are widely used for parameter estimation in complex models where evaluating the likelihood is challenging but generating simulations is relatively straightforward. However, these methods…

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 Richard Gao , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Guy Moss , Leah Sophie Muhle , Reinhard Drews , Jakob H. Macke , Cornelius Schröder

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Scientific modeling and engineering applications rely heavily on parameter estimation methods to fit physical models and calibrate numerical simulations using real-world measurements. In the absence of analytic statistical models with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Ruoxi Jiang , Peter Y. Lu , Rebecca Willett

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) aims to efficiently use experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Jonas Beck , Michael Deistler , Yves Bernaerts , Jakob Macke , Philipp Berens

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Meshi Bashari , Roy Maor Lotan , Yonghoon Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Maximilian Dax , Jonas Wildberger , Simon Buchholz , Stephen R. Green , Jakob H. Macke , Bernhard Schölkopf