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Trial-and-error based reinforcement learning (RL) has seen rapid advancements in recent times, especially with the advent of deep neural networks. However, the majority of autonomous RL algorithms require a large number of interactions with…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-23 Sanket Kamthe , Marc Peter Deisenroth

Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising uncertainty quantification framework which works as a wrapper around a black-box classifier to construct prediction sets (i.e., subset of candidate classes) with provable guarantees. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yuanjie Shi , Hooman Shahrokhi , Xuesong Jia , Xiongzhi Chen , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

Robust principal component analysis (RPCA) is a widely used technique for recovering low-rank structure from matrices with missing entries and sparse, possibly large-magnitude corruptions. Although numerous algorithms achieve accurate point…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Liangliang Yuan , Lei Wang , Quan Kong , Liuhua Peng

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

In drug discovery, it is vital to confirm the predictions of pharmaceutical properties from computational models using costly wet-lab experiments. Hence, obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates is crucial for prioritizing drug molecules…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-19 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Zhen Lin , Jimeng Sun

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Conformal risk control is an extension of conformal prediction for controlling risk functions beyond miscoverage. The original algorithm controls the expected value of a loss that is monotonic in a one-dimensional parameter. Here, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Alexander Jenkins , Danilo Mandic , Cesare Alippi , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Chao Gao , Liren Shan , Vaidehi Srinivas , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

The Super Learner (SL) is a widely used ensemble method that combines predictions from a library of learners based on their predictive performance. Interval predictions are of considerable practical interest because they allow uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Zhanli Wu , Fabrizio Leisen , Miguel-Angel Luque-Fernandez , F. Javier Rubio

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

We consider conformal prediction for multivariate data and focus on hierarchical data, where some components are linear combinations of others. Intuitively, the hierarchical structure can be leveraged to reduce the size of prediction…

Recent advances in object detectors have led to their adoption for industrial uses. However, their deployment in safety-critical applications is hindered by the inherent lack of reliability of neural networks and the complex structure of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-03 Léo andéol , Luca Mossina , Adrien Mazoyer , Sébastien Gerchinovitz

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee. Instead of having point predictions, i.e., a real number in the case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-05 Martim Sousa

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Xiayin Lou , Peng Luo

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While extensively studied in univariate settings, its extension to multi-output problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Victor Dheur , Matteo Fontana , Yorick Estievenart , Naomi Desobry , Souhaib Ben Taieb

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth