Related papers: Generalized random forest for extreme quantile reg…
Random forests is a common non-parametric regression technique which performs well for mixed-type unordered data and irrelevant features, while being robust to monotonic variable transformations. Standard random forests, however, do not…
In ordinary quantile regression, quantiles of different order are estimated one at a time. An alternative approach, which is referred to as quantile regression coefficients modeling (QRCM), is to model quantile regression coefficients as…
This note presents a simple way to add a count (or quantile) constraint to a regression neural net, such that given $n$ samples in the training set it guarantees that the prediction of $m<n$ samples will be larger than the actual value (the…
This study introduces and evaluates the Quantile Regressor Tree (QRT), a novel methodology merging the robust characteristics of quantile regression with the versatility of decision trees. The quantile regressor tree introduces…
Extremiles provide a generalization of quantiles which are not only robust, but also have an intrinsic link with extreme value theory. This paper introduces an extremile regression model tailored for functional covariate spaces. The…
We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
The increased availability of massive data sets provides a unique opportunity to discover subtle patterns in their distributions, but also imposes overwhelming computational challenges. To fully utilize the information contained in big…
We show that the estimating equations for quantile regression can be solved using a simple EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent…
The paper proposes a new variant of a decision tree, called an Extreme Learning Tree. It consists of an extremely random tree with non-linear data transformation, and a linear observer that provides predictions based on the leaf index where…
Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…
In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…
We propose a computationally efficient alternative to generalized random forests (GRFs) for estimating heterogeneous effects in large dimensions. While GRFs rely on a gradient-based splitting criterion, which in large dimensions is…
Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…
Causal inference for extreme events has many potential applications in fields such as climate science, medicine and economics. We study the extremal quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment on a continuous, heavy-tailed outcome.…
Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric…
The maximum likelihood method offers a standard way to estimate the three parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Combined with the block maxima method, it is often used in practice to assess the extreme value index…
Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…
We introduce and study Multi-Quantile estimators for the parameters $( \xi, \sigma, \mu)$ of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to provide a robust approach to extreme value modeling. Unlike classical estimators, such as the…
In recent environmental studies extreme events have a great impact. The yearly and monthly maxima of environment related indices can be analysed by the tools of extreme value theory. For instance, the monthly maxima of the fire weather…