Related papers: VIBES: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach Integrating…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
We consider the qualitative behavior of a mathematical model for transmission dynamics with two nonlinear stages of contagion. The proposed model is inspired by phenomena occurring in epidemiology (spread of infectious diseases) or social…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
It is a fundamental question in epidemiology to estimate, model and predict the growth rate of a pandemic. Analogously, analysing the diffusion of innovation, (fake) news, memes, and rumours is of key importance in the social sciences. The…
In this survey we report some recent results in the mathematical modeling of epidemic phenomena through the use of kinetic equations. We initially consider models of interaction between agents in which social characteristics play a key role…
Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
Epidemics in large complete networks is well established. In contrast, we consider epidemics in non-complete networks. We establish the fluid limit macroscopic dynamics of a multi-virus spread over a multipartite network as the number of…
We study the early stages of viral infection, and the distribution of times to obtain a persistent infection. The virus population proliferates by entering and reproducing inside a target cell until a sufficient number of new virus…
Understanding the interplay between human behavioral phenomena and infectious disease dynamics has been one of the central challenges of mathematical epidemiology. However, socio-cognitive processes critical for the initiation of desired…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
When modelling HIV epidemics, it is important to incorporate set-point viral load and its heritability. As set-point viral load distributions can differ significantly amongst epidemics, it is imperative to account for the observed local…
Background: Human-to-human transmission of pathogens fundamentally depends on interactions among infectious and susceptible individuals, yet traditional population-scale models often overlook the stochastic, behaviour-driven, and highly…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…