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Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

Machine learning (ML) models always make a prediction, even when they are likely to be wrong. This causes problems in practical applications, as we do not know if we should trust a prediction. ML with reject option addresses this issue by…

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Rui Xu , Yue Sun , Chao Chen , Parv Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Hierarchical semantic structures naturally exist in an image dataset, in which several semantically relevant image clusters can be further integrated into a larger cluster with coarser-grained semantics. Capturing such structures with image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Yuanfan Guo , Minghao Xu , Jiawen Li , Bingbing Ni , Xuanyu Zhu , Zhenbang Sun , Yi Xu

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

While existing hierarchical text classification (HTC) methods attempt to capture label hierarchies for model training, they either make local decisions regarding each label or completely ignore the hierarchy information during inference. To…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-06-19 Yuning Mao , Jingjing Tian , Jiawei Han , Xiang Ren

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets. While popular variants such as CD-split improve CP's efficiency, they often yield prediction sets composed of multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-29 Mingyi Zheng , Hongyu Jiang , Yizhou Lu , Jiaye Teng

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee. Instead of having point predictions, i.e., a real number in the case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-05 Martim Sousa

Hierarchical clustering is a popular unsupervised data analysis method. For many real-world applications, we would like to exploit prior information about the data that imposes constraints on the clustering hierarchy, and is not captured by…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-07-17 Vaggos Chatziafratis , Rad Niazadeh , Moses Charikar

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo

Hierarchical classification offers an approach to incorporate the concept of mistake severity by leveraging a structured, labeled hierarchy. However, decoding in such settings frequently relies on heuristic decision rules, which may not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Roman Plaud , Alexandre Perez-Lebel , Matthieu Labeau , Antoine Saillenfest , Thomas Bonald

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Machine learning models have been successfully used in many scientific and engineering fields. However, it remains difficult for a model to simultaneously utilize domain knowledge and experimental observation data. The application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Yuntian Chen , Dou Huang , Dongxiao Zhang , Junsheng Zeng , Nanzhe Wang , Haoran Zhang , Jinyue Yan

Globally interpretable models are a promising approach for trustworthy AI in safety-critical domains. Alongside global explanations, detailed local explanations are a crucial complement to effectively support human experts during inference.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Thomas Norrenbrock , Timo Kaiser , Sovan Biswas , Neslihan Kose , Ramesh Manuvinakurike , Bodo Rosenhahn

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Regression tasks in computer vision, such as age estimation or counting, are often formulated into classification by quantizing the target space into classes. Yet real-world data is often imbalanced -- the majority of training samples lie…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Haipeng Xiong , Angela Yao
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