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Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Ilia Nouretdinov , Valery Manokhin , Alex Gammerman

Permutation-based partial-correlation tests guarantee finite-sample Type I error control under any fixed design and exchangeable noise, yet their power can collapse when the permutation-augmented design aligns too closely with the covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Tianyi Wang , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

We introduce the notion of heterogeneous calibration that applies a post-hoc model-agnostic transformation to model outputs for improving AUC performance on binary classification tasks. We consider overconfident models, whose performance is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-11 David Durfee , Aman Gupta , Kinjal Basu

This paper discusses several p-value-free multiple hypothesis testing methods proposed in recent years and organizes them by introducing a unified framework termed competition test. Although existing competition tests are effective in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Mingzhou Deng , Yan Fu

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

Sequence-based specification and usage-driven statistical testing are designed for rigorous and cost-effective software development, offering a semi-formal approach to assessing the behavior of complex systems and interactions between…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Seth Wolfgang , Lan Lin , Fengguang Song

We introduce a novel meta-analysis framework to combine dependent tests under a general setting, and utilize it to synthesize various microbiome association tests that are calculated from the same dataset. Our development builds upon the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-16 Xiufan Yu , Linjun Zhang , Arun Srinivasan , Min-ge Xie , Lingzhou Xue

Distributed model fitting refers to the process of fitting a mathematical or statistical model to the data using distributed computing resources, such that computing tasks are divided among multiple interconnected computers or nodes, often…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-04 Xiaofei Wu , Rongmei Liang , Fabio Roli , Marcello Pelillo , Jing Yuan

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

State-of-the-art schemes for performance analysis and optimization of multiple-input multiple-output systems generally experience degradation or even become invalid in dynamic complex scenarios with unknown interference and channel state…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-07-01 Fan Meng , Shengheng Liu , Yongming Huang , Zhaohua Lu

This paper places conformal testing in a general framework of statistical hypothesis testing. A standard approach to testing a composite null hypothesis $H$ is to test each of its elements and to reject $H$ when each of its elements is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Vladimir Vovk

Statistical Model Checking (SMC) is a trade-off between testing and formal verification. The core idea of the approach is to conduct some simulations of the system and verify if they satisfy some given property. In this paper we show that…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2011-11-03 Peter Bulychev , Alexandre David , Kim Guldstrand Larsen , Marius Mikučionis , Axel Legay

We present a framework for merging unit tests for autonomous systems. Typically, it is intractable to test an autonomous system for every scenario in its operating environment. The question of whether it is possible to design a single test…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-07 Josefine Graebener , Apurva Badithela , Richard M. Murray

In multi-center clinical trials, due to various reasons, the individual-level data are strictly restricted to be assessed publicly. Instead, the summarized information is widely available from published results. With the advance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-05 Jing Qin , Yukun Liu , Pengfei Li

We propose an asymptotic framework to analyze the performance of (personalized) federated learning algorithms. In this new framework, we formulate federated learning as a multi-criterion objective, where the goal is to minimize each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-21 Gary Cheng , Karan Chadha , John Duchi

Simulation offers a simple and flexible way to estimate the power of a clinical trial when analytic formulae are not available. The computational burden of using simulation has, however, restricted its application to only the simplest of…

We study a large-scale one-sided multiple testing problem in which test statistics follow normal distributions with unit variance, and the goal is to identify signals with positive mean effects. A conventional approach is to compute…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Kwangok Seo , Johan Lim , Hyungwon Choi , Jaesik Jeong

The standard paired-sample testing approach in the multidimensional setting applies multiple univariate tests on the individual features, followed by p-value adjustments. Such an approach suffers when the data carry numerous features. A…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-29 Ioannis Bargiotas , Argyris Kalogeratos , Nicolas Vayatis

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

Accurate estimation of treatment effects in online A/B testing is challenging with zero-inflated and skewed metrics. Traditional tests, like Welch's t-test, often lack sensitivity with heavy-tailed data due to their reliance on means, as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Kevin Charette , Tristan Boudreault