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Probabilistic models are conceptually powerful tools for finding structure in data, but their practical effectiveness is often limited by our ability to perform inference in them. Exact inference is frequently intractable, so approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-25 Robert Nishihara , Iain Murray , Ryan P. Adams

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-12 Thorbjörn Gudmundsson , Henrik Hult

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The family of log-concave density functions contains various kinds of common probability distributions. Due to the shape restriction, it is possible to find the nonparametric estimate of the density, for example, the nonparametric maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Fuheng Cui , Stephen G. Walker

We propose a modification, based on the RESTART (repetitive simulation trials after reaching thresholds) and DPR (dynamics probability redistribution) rare event simulation algorithms, of the standard diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Martin Hairer , Jonathan Weare

Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani

Bayesian low-rank matrix factorization techniques have become an essential tool for relational data analysis and matrix completion. A standard approach is to assign zero-mean Gaussian priors on the columns or rows of factor matrices to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-11 Saibal De , Hadi Salehi , Alex Gorodetsky

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-27 Xiangyu Wang , Fangjian Guo , Katherine A. Heller , David B. Dunson

In this paper, we extend our work to the Bayesian inverse problems for inferring unknown forcing and initial condition of the forward Navier-Stokes equation coupled with tracer equation with noisy Lagrangian observation on the positions of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-20 Juntao Yang

We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that is designed to sample from target distributions with irregular geometry using an adaptive scheme. In cases where targets exhibit non-Gaussian behaviour, we propose that adaption…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-06 Ameer Dharamshi , Vivian Ngo , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

An intriguing new class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) has recently been proposed as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In order to facilitate the application to a larger class of problems, we propose a…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-24 Matthias Sachs , Deborshee Sen , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

We discuss a Bayesian hierarchical copula model for clusters of financial time series. A similar approach has been developed in recent paper. However, the prior distributions proposed there do not always provide a proper posterior. In order…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Paolo Onorati , Brunero Liseo

We introduce a powerful and flexible MCMC algorithm for stochastic simulation. The method builds on a pseudo-marginal method originally introduced in [Genetics 164 (2003) 1139--1160], showing how algorithms which are approximations to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-01 Christophe Andrieu , Gareth O. Roberts

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on third-order Langevin dynamics for sampling from distributions with log-concave and smooth densities. The higher-order dynamics allow for more flexible discretization schemes,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-27 Wenlong Mou , Yi-An Ma , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-21 Colin Fox , Tiangang Cui , Markus Neumayer

Monte Carlo sampling methods often suffer from long correlation times. Consequently, these methods must be run for many steps to generate an independent sample. In this paper a method is proposed to overcome this difficulty. The method…

Computation · Statistics 2007-09-13 Jonathan Weare

This paper develops a distributed model predictive control (DMPC) strategy for a class of discrete-time linear systems with consideration of globally coupled constraints. The DMPC under study is based on the dual problem concerning all…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Yanxu Su , Yang Shi , Changyin Sun

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue