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Over the last couple of decades, there has been a surge in various approaches to multiple-point statistics simulation, commonly referred to as MPS. These methods have aimed to improve several critical aspects of realism in the results,…

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Queueing systems present many opportunities for applying machine-learning predictions, such as estimated service times, to improve system performance. This integration raises numerous open questions about how predictions can be effectively…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Michael Mitzenmacher , Rana Shahout

We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2014-09-25 Scott F. Daniel , Andrew J. Connolly , Jeff Schneider

Quantifying and propagating modeling uncertainties is crucial for reliability analysis, robust optimization, and other model-based algorithmic processes in engineering design and control. Now, physics-informed machine learning (PIML)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Manaswin Oddiraju , Bharath Varma Penumatsa , Divyang Amin , Michael Piedmonte , Souma Chowdhury

Accurate aircraft trajectory prediction (TP) in air traffic management systems is confounded by a number of epistemic uncertainties, dominated by uncertain meteorological conditions and operator specific procedures. Handling this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-21 Amy Hodgkin , Nick Pepper , Marc Thomas

Accurate parameter estimation from cosmic microwave background data requires reliable likelihood modeling, particularly at large angular scales where angular power spectrum estimators exhibit non-Gaussian statistics. We present a novel…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-23 Giacomo Galloni , Paolo Campeti , Luca Pagano , Martina Gerbino , Massimiliano Lattanzi , Paolo Natoli

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-23 James Requeima , John Bronskill , Dami Choi , Richard E. Turner , David Duvenaud

Accurate modeling of aerodynamic loads is essential for understanding and predicting the responses of complex structural systems. However, these models often rely on simplifications of the true physical forces, introducing assumptions that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Gledson Rodrigo Tondo , Igor Kavrakov , Guido Morgenthal

We propose and validate a data-driven approach for modeling large-amplitude flow-induced oscillations of elastically mounted pitching wings. We first train a neural networks regression model for the nonlinear aerodynamic moment using data…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-02-21 Yuanhang Zhu , Kenneth Breuer

Contingency tables are a fundamental representation of multivariate categorical data. As the size of the contingency table grows exponentially with the number of variables, even a moderate number of variables, each with a moderate number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Veronica Vinciotti , Ernst C. Wit

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

Flight delay prediction has become a key focus in air traffic management (ATM), as delays reflect inefficiencies in the system. This paper proposes LLM4Delay, a large language model (LLM)-based framework for predicting flight delays from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Thaweerath Phisannupawong , Joshua Julian Damanik , Han-Lim Choi

In this paper, we propose a new Soft Confidence-Weighted (SCW) online learning scheme, which enables the conventional confidence-weighted learning method to handle non-separable cases. Unlike the previous confidence-weighted learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-22 Jialei Wang , Peilin Zhao , Steven C. H. Hoi

Accurate wind speed and direction forecasting is paramount across many sectors, spanning agriculture, renewable energy generation, and bushfire management. However, conventional forecasting models encounter significant challenges in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Fuling Chen , Kevin Vinsen , Arthur Filoche

To address the enormous size of Large Language Models (LLMs), model compression methods, such as quantization and pruning, are often deployed, especially on edge devices. In this work, we focus on layer-wise post-training quantization and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Jing Liu , Toshiaki Koike-Akino , Ye Wang , Hassan Mansour , Matthew Brand

In this work, we propose a novel data-driven machine learning (ML) technique to model and predict the dynamics of the wireless propagation environment in latent space. Leveraging the idea of channel charting, which learns compressed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Charbel Bou Chaaya , Abanoub M. Girgis , Mehdi Bennis

Accurate prediction of flight-level passenger traffic is of paramount importance in airline operations, influencing key decisions from pricing to route optimization. This study introduces a novel, multimodal deep learning approach to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-11 Sina Ehsani , Elina Sergeeva , Wendy Murdy , Benjamin Fox

The conceptual design of Blended Wing Body (BWB) aircraft is often constrained by the high computational cost of resolving complex aerodynamics over a high-dimensional design space. While deep learning offers a pathway to rapid aerodynamic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Nicholas Sung , Steven Spreizer , Mohamed Elrefaie , Matthew C. Jones , Faez Ahmed