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Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric generative models that provide interpretability of hyperparameters, admit closed-form expressions for training and inference, and are able to accurately represent uncertainty. To model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-21 Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a non-parametric, Bayesian framework to approximate complex models. Standard GP regression can lead to an unbounded model in which some points can take infeasible values. We introduce a new GP method that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-04 Didem Kochan , Xiu Yang

We propose a new modeling framework for highly-multivariate spatial processes that synthesizes ideas from recent multiscale and spectral approaches with graphical models. The basis graphical lasso writes a univariate Gaussian process as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Mitchell Krock , William Kleiber , Dorit Hammerling , Stephen Becker

Modeling spatial processes that exhibit both smooth and rough features poses a significant challenge. This is especially true in fields where complex physical variables are observed across spatial domains. Traditional spatial techniques,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Matthew Hofkes , Douglas Nychka

Falsification is the basis for testing existing hypotheses, and a great danger is posed when results incorrectly reject our prior notions (false positives). Though nonparametric and nonlinear exploratory methods of uncovering coupling…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-08 Ameer Ghouse , Gaetano Valenza

This paper proposes a physically consistent Gaussian Process (GP) enabling the identification of uncertain Lagrangian systems. The function space is tailored according to the energy components of the Lagrangian and the differential equation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Giulio Evangelisti , Sandra Hirche

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) as models for astronomical time series datasets has recently become almost ubiquitous, given their ease of use and flexibility. GPs excel in particular at marginalization over the stellar signal in cases…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-09-08 Rodrigo Luger , Daniel Foreman-Mackey , Christina Hedges

Data-driven Model Predictive Control (MPC), where the system model is learned from data with machine learning, has recently gained increasing interests in the control community. Gaussian Processes (GP), as a type of statistical models, are…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-10-03 Truong X. Nghiem

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian regression models that allow exact posterior inference, but exhibit high computational and memory costs. In order to improve scalability of GPs, approximate posterior inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-28 Martin Trapp , Robert Peharz , Franz Pernkopf , Carl E. Rasmussen

This paper introduces a new method for performing computational inference on log-Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood is approximated directly by making novel use of a continuously specified Gaussian random field. We show that for…

Computation · Statistics 2015-11-02 Daniel Simpson , Janine Illian , Finn Lindgren , Sigrunn Sørbye , Håvard Rue

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-02 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Lassi Roininen , Sara Wade , Theo Damoulas , Mark Girolami

In science and engineering, we often work with models designed for accurate prediction of variables of interest. Recognizing that these models are approximations of reality, it becomes desirable to apply multiple models to the same data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Marzieh Ajirak , Daniel Waxman , Fernando Llorente , Petar M. Djuric

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Xiuming Liu , Dave Zachariah , Edith C. H. Ngai

In many clinical trials treatments need to be repeatedly applied as diseases relapse frequently after remission over a long period of time (e.g., 35 weeks). Most research in statistics focuses on the overall trial design, such as sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Yanxun Xu , Yuan Ji

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in non-parametric Bayesian modeling, and play an important role in various statistical and machine learning applications. In a variety tasks of uncertainty quantification, generating random sample…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-02 Haoyuan Chen , Rui Tuo

We study the problem of data-driven background estimation, arising in the search of physics signals predicted by the Standard Model at the Large Hadron Collider. Our work is motivated by the search for the production of pairs of Higgs…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tudor Manole , Patrick Bryant , John Alison , Mikael Kuusela , Larry Wasserman

The correlation length-scale next to the noise variance are the most used hyperparameters for the Gaussian processes. Typically, stationary covariance functions are used, which are only dependent on the distances between input points and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-30 Kevin Cremanns , Dirk Roos

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

The modeling of spatial point processes has advanced considerably, yet extending these models to non-Euclidean domains, such as road networks, remains a challenging problem. We propose a novel framework for log-Gaussian Cox processes on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-31 David Bolin , Damilya Saduakhas , Alexandre B. Simas

Brute-force simulations for dynamics on very large networks are quite expensive. While phenomenological treatments may capture some macroscopic properties, they often ignore important microscopic details. Fortunately, one may be only…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-17 Chuansheng Shen , Hanshuang Chen , Zhonghuai Hou , Jürgen Kurths