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In this paper we construct a framework for doing statistical inference for discretely observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs) where the driving noise has 'memory'. Classical SDE models for inference assume the driving noise to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-05 Martin Lysy , Natesh S. Pillai

In this paper, different strands of literature are combined in order to obtain algorithms for semi-parametric estimation of discrete choice models that include the modelling of unobserved heterogeneity by using mixing distributions for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-12 Dietmar Bauer , Sebastian Büscher , Manuel Batram

The goal of regression is to recover an unknown underlying function that best links a set of predictors to an outcome from noisy observations. In nonparametric regression, one assumes that the regression function belongs to a pre-specified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-10 Tianyu Zhang , Noah Simon

Learning dynamical systems is a promising avenue for scientific discoveries. However, capturing the governing dynamics in multiple environments still remains a challenge: model-based approaches rely on the fidelity of assumptions made for a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-09 MoonJeong Park , Youngbin Choi , Namhoon Lee , Dongwoo Kim

A systematic Bayesian framework is developed for physics constrained parameter inference ofstochastic differential equations (SDE) from partial observations. The physical constraints arederived for stochastic climate models but are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-11-25 Daniel Peavoy , Christian L. E. Franzke , Gareth O. Roberts

Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs) driven by random noise play a central role in modeling physical processes with rough spatio-temporal dynamics, such as turbulence flows, superconductors, and quantum dynamics. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Yuantu Zhu , Zheyan Li , Dai Shi , Luke Thompson , Oliver Nash , Jose Miguel Lara Rangel , Siran Li , Bingguang Chen , Rongchan Zhu , Qi Meng , Hao Ni

The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is a key reference for inference in latent variable models; unfortunately, its computational cost is prohibitive in the large scale learning setting. In this paper, we propose an extension of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-26 Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Hoi-To Wai

This paper aims to investigate the numerical approximation of a general second order parabolic stochastic partial differential equation(SPDE) driven by multiplicative and additive noise. Our main interest is on such SPDEs where the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-19 Jean Daniel Mukam , Antoine Tambue

Although the standard formulations of prediction problems involve fully-observed and noiseless data drawn in an i.i.d. manner, many applications involve noisy and/or missing data, possibly involving dependence, as well. We study these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Po-Ling Loh , Martin J. Wainwright

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Wei Jiang , Jiayu Qin , Lingyu Wu , Changyou Chen , Tianbao Yang , Lijun Zhang

This study examines the challenges of modeling complex and noisy data related to socioeconomic factors over time, with a focus on data from various districts in Odisha, India. Traditional time-series models struggle to capture both trends…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Sandeep Kumar Samota , Reema Gupta , Snehashish Chakraverty

We consider the random-design least-squares regression problem within the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) framework. Given a stream of independent and identically distributed input/output data, we aim to learn a regression function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-30 Aymeric Dieuleveut , Francis Bach

We propose robust methods to identify underlying Partial Differential Equation (PDE) from a given set of noisy time dependent data. We assume that the governing equation is a linear combination of a few linear and nonlinear differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-03 Yuchen He , Sung Ha Kang , Wenjing Liao , Hao Liu , Yingjie Liu

Models incorporating uncertain inputs, such as random forces or material parameters, have been of increasing interest in PDE-constrained optimization. In this paper, we focus on the efficient numerical minimization of a convex and smooth…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Caroline Geiersbach , Winnifried Wollner

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Martin Jørgensen , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Hugh Salimbeni

We study non-parametric estimation of choice models, which were introduced to alleviate unreasonable assumptions in traditional parametric models, and are prevalent in several application areas. Existing literature focuses only on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-07 Nam Ho-Nguyen , Fatma Kilinc-Karzan

One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-02 Behnoosh Parsa , Keshav Rajasekaran , Franziska Meier , Ashis G. Banerjee

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are fundamental for modeling stochastic dynamics across the natural sciences and modern machine learning. Learning their solution operators with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Dai Shi , Lequan Lin , Andi Han , Luke Thompson , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Zhiyong Wang , Junbin Gao

Automated analysis of complex systems based on multiple readouts remains a challenge. Change point detection algorithms are aimed to locating abrupt changes in the time series behaviour of a process. In this paper, we present a novel change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Artem Ryzhikov , Mikhail Hushchyn , Denis Derkach

Detecting drifts in data is essential for machine learning applications, as changes in the statistics of processed data typically has a profound influence on the performance of trained models. Most of the available drift detection methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Andrea Castellani , Sebastian Schmitt , Barbara Hammer