Related papers: Stealing Accuracy: Predicting Day-ahead Electricit…

Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…

Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation…

Mid-term electricity load forecasting (LF) plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. To address the issue of error accumulation and transfer during the operation of existing LF models, a novel model called error…

We present new formulations of the stochastic electricity market clearing problem based on the principles of stochastic programming. Previous analyses have established that the canonical stochastic programming model effectively captures the…

Short-term electricity price forecasting has become important for demand side management and power generation scheduling. Especially as the electricity market becomes more competitive, a more accurate price prediction than the day-ahead…

In wholesale electricity markets, prices fluctuate widely from hour to hour and electricity generators price-hedge their output using longer-term contracts, such as monthly base futures. Consequently, the incentives they face to drive up…

Forecasting is critical in areas such as finance, biology, and healthcare. Despite the progress in the field, making accurate forecasts remains challenging because real-world time series contain both global trends, local fine-grained…

The aim of this paper is to compute one-day-ahead prediction regions for daily curves of electricity demand and price. Three model-based procedures to construct general prediction regions are proposed, all of them using bootstrap…

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday…

Accurate household electrical energy demand prediction is essential for effectively managing sustainable Energy Communities. Integrated with the Energy Management System, these communities aim to optimise operational costs. However, most…

The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has…

There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…

In two-stage electricity markets, renewable power producers enter the day-ahead market with a forecast of future power generation and then reconcile any forecast deviation in the real-time market at a penalty. The choice of the forecast…

Regional solar power forecasting, which involves predicting the total power generation from all rooftop photovoltaic systems in a region holds significant importance for various stakeholders in the energy sector. However, the vast amount of…

Large collections of time series data are often organized into hierarchies with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. Probabilistic coherent forecasting is tasked to produce forecasts…

Wind power is attracting increasing attention around the world due to its renewable, pollution-free, and other advantages. However, safely and stably integrating the high permeability intermittent power energy into electric power systems…

Electricity demand and generation have become increasingly unpredictable with the growing share of variable renewable energy sources in the power system. Forecasting electricity supply by fuel mix is crucial for market operation, ensuring…

Large penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) brings huge uncertainty into the electricity markets. The current deterministic clearing approach in the day-ahead (DA) market, where RESs participate based on expected production, has…

Coordination of distributed energy resources is critical for electricity grid management. Although nodal pricing schemes can mitigate congestion and voltage deviations, the resulting prices are not necessarily equitable. In this work, we…