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This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal palaeoclimate variables from site-based reconstructions. Using a 3D-Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-10 S. F. Cleator , S. P. Harrison , N. K. Nichols , I. C. Prentice , I. Roulstone

Recent research is trying to leverage occupants' demand in the building's control loop to consider individuals' well-being and the buildings' energy savings. To that end, a real-time feedback system is needed to provide data about…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-20 Roshanak Ashrafi , Mona Azarbayjani , Hamed Tabkhi

Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-12 Maria Dolores Gadea , Jesus Gonzalo , Andrey Ramos

High-temperature resummed perturbation theory is plagued by poor convergence properties. The problem appears for theories with bosonic field content such as QCD, QED or scalar theories. We calculate the pressure as well as other…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2016-09-06 J. Berges , Sz. Borsanyi , U. Reinosa , J. Serreau

Adaptation to local environments often occurs through natural selection acting on a large number of loci, each having a weak phenotypic effect. One way to detect these loci is to identify genetic polymorphisms that exhibit high correlation…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-20 Eric Frichot , Sean Schoville , Guillaume Bouchard , Olivier François

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Jun Liu , Tao Zhou , Jiarui Li , Xiaohui Zhong , Peng Zhang , Jie Feng , Lei Chen , Hao Li

We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-29 Laurens P. Stoop , Karin van der Wiel , William Zappa , Arno Haverkamp , Ad J. Feelders , Machteld van den Broek

The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created unprecedented demands for computational power, yet methods for evaluating the performance, efficiency, and environmental impact of deployed models remain fragmented. Current…

Performance · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Hongyuan Liu , Xinyang Liu , Guosheng Hu

Urban heat islands, defined as specific zones exhibiting substantially higher temperatures than their immediate environs, pose significant threats to environmental sustainability and public health. This study introduces a novel…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Lorenzo Innocenti , Giacomo Blanco , Luca Barco , Claudio Rossi

Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Ken C. L. Wong , Hongzhi Wang , Etienne E. Vos , Bianca Zadrozny , Campbell D. Watson , Tanveer Syeda-Mahmood

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-29 Trevor Harris , Ryan Sriver

A wide range of problems in computational science and engineering require estimation of sparse eigenvectors for high dimensional systems. Here, we propose two variants of the Truncated Orthogonal Iteration to compute multiple leading…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-26 Hexuan Liu , Aleksandr Aravkin

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are numerical models that simulate complex physical processes within the Earth's climate system and are essential for understanding and predicting climate change. However, GCMs suffer from systemic biases due to…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-23 Reetam Majumder , Shiqi Fang , A. Sankarasubramanian , Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

Generalized Fourier series with orthogonal polynomial bases have useful applications in several fields, including differential equations, pattern recognition, and image and signal processing. However, computing the generalized Fourier…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-02-09 Ashley Prater

The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting. However, these models are often limited by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Haiwen Guan , Moein Darman , Dibyajyoti Chakraborty , Troy Arcomano , Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Romit Maulik

Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-31 Janni Yuval , Paul A. O'Gorman

Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-21 Juan M. Restrepo , Michael E. Mann

Active and passive thermography are two efficient techniques extensively used to measure heterogeneous thermal patterns leading to subsurface defects for diagnostic evaluations. This study conducts a comparative analysis on low-rank matrix…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-15 Bardia Yousefi , Clemente Ibarra Castanedo , Xavier P. V. Maldague

Quantum thermometry aims at determining temperature with ultimate precision in the quantum regime. Standard equilibrium approaches, limited by the Quantum Fisher Information given by static energy fluctuations, lose sensitivity outside a…

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