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Related papers: Online Prediction with Limited Selectivity

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In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-06 Pascal Rink , Werner Brannath

We study the multiclass online learning problem where a forecaster makes a sequence of predictions using the advice of $n$ experts. Our main contribution is to analyze the regime where the best expert makes at most $b$ mistakes and to show…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Simina Brânzei , Yuval Peres

Selective classification enhances the reliability of predictive models by allowing them to abstain from making uncertain predictions. In this work, we revisit the design of optimal selection functions through the lens of the Neyman--Pearson…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Alvin Heng , Harold Soh

In a supervised online setting, quantifying uncertainty has been proposed in the seminal work of \cite{gibbs2021adaptive}. For any given point-prediction algorithm, their method (ACI) produces a conformal prediction set with an average…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Pierre Humbert , Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain

It's better to say "I can't answer" than to answer incorrectly. This selective prediction ability is crucial for NLP systems to be reliably deployed in real-world applications. Prior work has shown that existing selective prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Neeraj Varshney , Swaroop Mishra , Chitta Baral

This paper proposes a model predictive controller for discrete-time linear systems with additive, possibly unbounded, stochastic disturbances and subject to chance constraints. By computing a polytopic probabilistic positively invariant set…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-23 Kai Wang , Kiet Tuan Hoang , Sébastien Gros

It is a long-standing objective to ease the computation burden incurred by the decision making process. Identification of this mechanism's sensitivity to simplification has tremendous ramifications. Yet, algorithms for decision making under…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Andrey Zhitnikov , Vadim Indelman

Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Mateo Dulce , Carlos Patino , Bryan Wilder

Sparse methods are the standard approach to obtain interpretable models with high prediction accuracy. Alternatively, algorithmic ensemble methods can achieve higher prediction accuracy at the cost of loss of interpretability. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Anthony Christidis , Stefan Van Aelst , Ruben Zamar

Given $k$ pre-trained classifiers and a stream of unlabeled data examples, how can we actively decide when to query a label so that we can distinguish the best model from the rest while making a small number of queries? Answering this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Mohammad Reza Karimi , Nezihe Merve Gürel , Bojan Karlaš , Johannes Rausch , Ce Zhang , Andreas Krause

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Liaoyaqi Wang , Zhengping Jiang , Anqi Liu , Benjamin Van Durme

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Set prediction is about learning to predict a collection of unordered variables with unknown interrelations. Training such models with set losses imposes the structure of a metric space over sets. We focus on stochastic and underdefined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 David W. Zhang , Gertjan J. Burghouts , Cees G. M. Snoek

Learning, whether natural or artificial, is a process of selection. It starts with a set of candidate options and selects the more successful ones. In the case of machine learning the selection is done based on empirical estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Yevgeny Seldin

Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

Providing users with alternatives to choose from is an essential component in many online platforms, making the accurate prediction of choice vital to their success. A renewed interest in learning choice models has led to significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Nir Rosenfeld , Kojin Oshiba , Yaron Singer

Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-14 Jean Feng , Arjun Sondhi , Jessica Perry , Noah Simon

Subset selection in multiple linear regression aims to choose a subset of candidate explanatory variables that tradeoff fitting error (explanatory power) and model complexity (number of variables selected). We build mathematical programming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-04 Young Woong Park , Diego Klabjan

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-31 Sapan Agarwal , Corey M. Hudson