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This paper develops a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests, a recently proposed nonparametric causal regression model that employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and is specifically designed to estimate heterogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-17 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Two key challenges in modern statistical applications are the large amount of information recorded per individual, and that such data are often not collected all at once but in batches. These batch effects can be complex, causing…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-21 Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , David Rossell , Richard S. Savage

Recent causal inference literature has introduced causal effect decompositions to quantify sources of observed inequalities or disparities in outcomes, but these approaches are typically limited to pairwise comparisons. In healthcare…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Lin Yu , Zhihui Liu , Kathy Han , Olli Saarela

Acute infection, if not rapidly and accurately detected, can lead to sepsis, organ failure and even death. Current detection of acute infection as well as assessment of a patient's severity of illness are imperfect. Characterization of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-14 Michael B. Mayhew , Elizabeth Tran , Kirindi Choi , Uros Midic , Roland Luethy , Nandita Damaraju , Ljubomir Buturovic

Considering the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), around the world several vaccines are being developed. Till now, these vaccines are the most effective way to reduce the high burden on the global health…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-22 Dibyajyoti Mallick , Aniruddha Ray , Ankita Das , Sayantari Ghosh

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-08 Michael Lechner

AI models are often evaluated based on their ability to predict the outcome of interest. However, in many AI for social impact applications, the presence of an intervention that affects the outcome can bias the evaluation. Randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Winston Chen , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

Pre-treatment selection or censoring (`selection on treatment') can occur when two treatment levels are compared ignoring the third option of neither treatment, in `censoring by death' settings where treatment is only defined for those who…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-20 Edward H. Kennedy , Steve Harris , Luke J. Keele

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Marios Papamichalis , Abhishek Ray , Ilias Bilionis , Karthik Kannan , Rajiv Krishnamurthy

Estimating varying treatment effects in randomized trials with noncompliance is inherently challenging since variation comes from two separate sources: variation in the impact itself and variation in the compliance rate. In this setting,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-28 Jared D. Fisher , David W. Puelz , Sameer K. Deshpande

The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-20 Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro , Dankmar Boehning , Sujit Sahu

Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-04 Naoya Fujiwara , Tomokatsu Onaga , Takayuki Wada , Shouhei Takeuchi , Junji Seto , Tomoki Nakaya , Kazuyuki Aihara

Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel disease introductions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-02 Chris Jewell , Richard Brown

We are not only observers but also actors of reality. Our capability to intervene and alter the course of some events in the space and time surrounding us is an essential component of how we build our model of the world. In this doctoral…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Gilles Blondel

Cancer treatment outcomes are influenced not only by clinical and demographic factors but also by the collaboration of healthcare teams. However, prior work has largely overlooked the potential role of human collaboration in shaping patient…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Hsiao-Ying Lu , Kwan-Liu Ma

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-02 Kay H. Brodersen , Fabian Gallusser , Jim Koehler , Nicolas Remy , Steven L. Scott

Causal inference methods based on electronic health record (EHR) databases must simultaneously handle confounding and missing data. Vast scholarship exists aimed at addressing these two issues separately, but surprisingly few papers attempt…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Luke Benz , Alexander Levis , Sebastien Haneuse
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