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Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Kyle Moore , Jesse Roberts , Daryl Watson , Pamela Wisniewski

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Mark Steyvers , Heliodoro Tejeda , Aakriti Kumar , Catarina Belem , Sheer Karny , Xinyue Hu , Lukas Mayer , Padhraic Smyth

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Jiahui Geng , Fengyu Cai , Yuxia Wang , Heinz Koeppl , Preslav Nakov , Iryna Gurevych

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mohammad Beigi , Sijia Wang , Ying Shen , Zihao Lin , Adithya Kulkarni , Jianfeng He , Feng Chen , Ming Jin , Jin-Hee Cho , Dawei Zhou , Chang-Tien Lu , Lifu Huang

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ranganath Krishnan , Piyush Khanna , Omesh Tickoo

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been transformative across many domains. However, hallucination, i.e., confidently outputting incorrect information, remains one of the leading challenges for LLMs. This raises the question of how to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Toghrul Abbasli , Kentaroh Toyoda , Yuan Wang , Leon Witt , Muhammad Asif Ali , Yukai Miao , Dan Li , Qingsong Wei

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Mark Steyvers , Catarina Belem , Padhraic Smyth

Despite the significant progress made in practical applications of aligned language models (LMs), they tend to be overconfident in output answers compared to the corresponding pre-trained LMs. In this work, we systematically evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Guande He , Peng Cui , Jianfei Chen , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) combine visual and textual data for tasks such as image captioning and visual question answering. Proper uncertainty calibration is crucial, yet challenging, for reliable use in areas like healthcare…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Zijun Chen , Wenbo Hu , Guande He , Zhijie Deng , Zheng Zhang , Richang Hong

In recent years, large-scale language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their impressive text generation capabilities. However, these models often face the challenge of "hallucination," which undermines their reliability. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yuchen Yang , Houqiang Li , Yanfeng Wang , Yu Wang

Large language models (LLMs) could be valuable personal AI agents across various domains, provided they can precisely follow user instructions. However, recent studies have shown significant limitations in LLMs' instruction-following…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Juyeon Heo , Miao Xiong , Christina Heinze-Deml , Jaya Narain

Language models (LMs) are statistical models trained to assign probability to human-generated text. As such, it is reasonable to question whether they approximate linguistic variability exhibited by humans well. This form of statistical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Evgenia Ilia , Wilker Aziz

Large language models optimized with techniques like RLHF have achieved good alignment in being helpful and harmless. However, post-alignment, these language models often exhibit overconfidence, where the expressed confidence does not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Mozhi Zhang , Mianqiu Huang , Rundong Shi , Linsen Guo , Chong Peng , Peng Yan , Yaqian Zhou , Xipeng Qiu

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress, but their real-world application necessitates reliable calibration. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of calibration degradation of LLMs across four dimensions: models,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Hongseok Oh , Wonseok Hwang

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Ruixin Yang , Dheeraj Rajagopal , Shirley Anugrah Hayati , Bin Hu , Dongyeop Kang
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