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We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Bayesian coresets approximate a posterior distribution by building a small weighted subset of the data points. Any inference procedure that is too computationally expensive to be run on the full posterior can instead be run inexpensively on…

To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences…

Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are…

We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…

Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the…

We present asymptotic results for the regression-adjusted version of approximate Bayesian computation introduced by Beaumont(2002). We show that for an appropriate choice of the bandwidth, regression adjustment will lead to a posterior…

The new field of adaptive data analysis seeks to provide algorithms and provable guarantees for models of machine learning that allow researchers to reuse their data, which normally falls outside of the usual statistical paradigm of static…

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

In segmentation problems, inference on change-point position and model selection are two difficult issues due to the discrete nature of change-points. In a Bayesian context, we derive exact, non-asymptotic, explicit and tractable formulae…

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

We develop a theoretical framework for sample splitting in A/B testing environments, where data for each test are partitioned into two splits to measure methodological performance when the true impacts of tests are unobserved. We show that…

In Bayesian analysis, the selection of a prior distribution is typically done by considering each parameter in the model. While this can be convenient, in many scenarios it may be desirable to place a prior on a summary measure of the model…

The aim of this article is to make a contribution to the Bayesian procedure of testing precise hypotheses for parametric models. For this purpose, we define the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure that allows one to evaluate the suitability of a…

Replication of scientific studies is important for assessing the credibility of their results. However, there is no consensus on how to quantify the extent to which a replication study replicates an original result. We propose a novel…

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods rely on asymptotic arguments, implying that parameter inference can be systematically biased even when sufficient statistics are available. We propose to construct the ABC accept/reject step…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Sampling from complex target distributions is a challenging task fundamental to Bayesian inference. Parallel tempering (PT) addresses this problem by constructing a Markov chain on the expanded state space of a sequence of distributions…