Related papers: Human Extinction A Demographic Perspective
We finely describe the "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Our biological motivation is to study the decrease of regulated populations which are initially large. Under general…
Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 50's with the KiSS (after Kierstead, Slobodkin…
We consider extinction times for a class of birth-death processes commonly found in applications, where there is a control parameter which determines whether the population quickly becomes extinct, or rather persists for a long time. We…
Conditions for almost sure extinction are studied in discrete time branching processes with an infinite number of types. It is not assumed that the expected number of children is a bounded function of the parent's type. There might also be…
The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…
The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction…
Consider a supercritical branching random walk in a time-inhomogeneous random environment. We impose a selection (called barrier) on survival in the following way. The position of the barrier may depend on the generation and the…
Models of population growth and extinction are an increasingly popular subject of study. However, consequences of stochasticity and noise in shaping distributions and outcomes are not sufficiently explored. Here we consider a distributed…
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…
Growth of the world population and the world economic growth were hyperbolic in the past 2,000,000 years. Recently, from around 1950, they started to be diverted to slower trajectories but they are still close to the historical hyperbolic…
In this paper, we affirm our earlier findings of evidence for a limit to human lifespan. In particular, we assess the analyses in extreme value theory (EVT) performed by Rootz\'en and Zholud. We find that their criticisms of our work are…
We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…
This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a "refuge" as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations…
Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival…
We present numerical results based on a simplified ecological system in evolution, showing features of extinction similar to that claimed for the biosystem on Earth. In the model each species consists of a population in interaction with the…
We investigate stochastic extinction in an epidemic model and the impact of random vaccinations in large populations formulated in terms of an optimal escape path. We find that different random vaccination strategies can have widely…
Depletion of natural and artificial resources is a fundamental problem and a potential cause of economic crises, ecological catastrophes, and death of living organisms. Understanding the depletion process is crucial for its further control…
In an effort to inform the discussion surrounding existential risks from AI, we formulate Extinction-level Goodhart's Law as "Virtually any goal specification, pursued to the extreme, will result in the extinction of humanity", and we aim…
Mass extinction is a phenomenon in the history of life on Earth when a considerable number of species go extinct over a relatively short period of time. The magnitude of extinction varies between the events, the most well known are the…
The extinction time of an isolated population can be exponentially reduced by a periodic modulation of its environment. We investigate this effect using, as an example, a stochastic branching-annihilation process with a time-dependent…