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Advancing probabilistic solar forecasting methods is essential to supporting the integration of solar energy into the electricity grid. In this work, we develop a variety of state-of-the-art probabilistic models for forecasting solar…

The prediction of solar power generation is a challenging task due to its dependence on climatic characteristics that exhibit spatial and temporal variability. The performance of a prediction model may vary across different places due to…

Weather conditions can drastically alter the state of crops and rangelands, and in turn, impact the incomes and food security of individuals worldwide. Satellite-based remote sensing offers an effective way to monitor vegetation and climate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-26 Erika McPhillips , Hyeongseong Lee , Xiangyu Xie , Kathy Baylis , Chris Funk , Mengyang Gu

Accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the safe and economic operation of solar photovoltaic systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting performance…

We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-13 Thi Ngoc Nguyen , Felix Müsgens

The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-13 Daniel E. da Silva , Yash Parlikar , Shaela I. Jones , Charles N. Arge

Heat stress is one of the main welfare and productivity problems faced by dairy cattle in Mediterranean climates. In this study, we approach the prediction of the daily shade-seeking count as a non-linear multivariate regression problem and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 S. Sanjuan , D. A. Méndez , R. Arnau , J. M. Calabuig , X. Díaz de Otálora Aguirre , F. Estellés

In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more PV systems, located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-23 Lorenzo Nespoli , Vasco Medici

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Sakshi Mishra , Praveen Palanisamy

By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached 38.3% and the new installations are dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global increases of 12.7% and 18.5%, respectively. However, both wind…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-18 Ágnes Baran , Sándor Baran

This paper presents a Deep Learning (DL) framework for 48-hour forecasting of temperature, solar irradiance, and relative humidity to support Model Predictive Control (MPC) in smart HVAC systems. The approach employs a stacked Bidirectional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Georgios Vamvouras , Konstantinos Braimakis , Christos Tzivanidis

The residential electrical energy scheduling of solar Photovoltaics (PV) is an important research area of the modern green buildings. On the demand side, factors such as building load, and the renewable PV energy resources are integrated…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-16 Sara Zainaa , Shima Sadaf , Ansaruddin Kunjuc , Mohammad Meraj , Devrim Unal , Farid Touati

When a territory is poorly instrumented, geostationary satellites data can be useful to predict global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-01-21 Cyril Voyant , Pierrick Haurant , Marc Muselli , Christophe Paoli , Marie Laure Nivet

Design and operation of a utility scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant depends on accurate modeling of the power generated, which is highly correlated with aggregate solar irradiance on the plant's PV modules. At present, aggregate solar…

Applications · Statistics 2015-02-17 Joshua Patrick , Jane Harvill , Clifford Hansen

Accurate prediction of wind power is essential for the grid integration of this intermittent renewable source and aiding grid planners in forecasting available wind capacity. Spatial differences lead to discrepancies in climatological data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Md Saiful Islam Sajol , Md Shazid Islam , A S M Jahid Hasan , Md Saydur Rahman , Jubair Yusuf

Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Pavan Manjunath , Thomas Prufer

Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Quentin Paletta , Joan Lasenby

Dust storms are common in arid zones on the earth and others planets such as Mars. The impact of dust storms on solar radiation has significant implications for solar power plants and autonomous vehicles powered by solar panels. This paper…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-09-03 B. Ravindra

Solar power becomes one of the most promising renewable energy sources over the years leading up. Nevertheless, the weather is causing periodicity and volatility to photovoltaic (PV) energy production. Thus, Forecasting the PV power is…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-23 Mohamed Massaoudi , Ines Chihi , Lilia Sidhom , Mohamed Trabelsi , Shady S. Refaat , Fakhreddine S. Oueslati

As the US rapidly moves towards cleaner energy sources, solar energy is fast becoming the pillar of its renewable energy mix. Even while solar energy is increasingly being used, its variability is a key hindrance to grid stability, storage…

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