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Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a practical, scalable way to improve large language models on math, code, and other structured tasks. However, we argue that many headline RLVR gains are not yet well validated…
The LIBOR rate is currently scheduled for discontinuation, and the replacement advocated by regulators in the US is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The change has the potential to disrupt the $200 trillion market of derivatives…
The LIBOR has served since the 1970s as a fundamental measure for floating term rates across multiple currencies and maturities. However, in 2017 the Financial Conduct Authority announced the discontinuation of LIBOR from the end of 2021…
The main result of this paper is a collateralized counterparty valuation adjusted pricing equation, which allows to price a deal while taking into account credit and debit valuation adjustments (CVA, DVA) along with margining and funding…
Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a popular strategy for combining gold-standard and possibly noisy pseudo-labels to perform statistical estimation. Prior work has shown an asymptotic "free lunch" for PPI++, an adaptive form of PPI,…
This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and…
In this paper, we consider the problem of equal risk pricing and hedging in which the fair price of an option is the price that exposes both sides of the contract to the same level of risk. Focusing for the first time on the context where…
"Fundamental theorem of asset pricing" roughly states that absence of arbitrage opportunity in a market is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral probability. We give a simple counterexample to this oversimplified statement. Prices…
In this paper, I examine why some firms have zero leverage. I fail to find evidence that firms are unlevered because of managerial entrenchment since these firms do not have weaker corporate governance. I reject the hypothesis that firms…
Contrary to the claims made by several authors, a financial market model in which the price of a risky security follows a reflected geometric Brownian motion is not arbitrage-free. In fact, such models violate even the weakest no-arbitrage…
We propose an e-value based framework for testing arbitrary composite nulls against composite alternatives, when an $\epsilon$ fraction of the data can be arbitrarily corrupted. Our tests are inherently sequential, being valid at arbitrary…
This paper proposes two approaches that quantify the exact relationship among the viability, the absence of arbitrage, and/or the existence of the num\'eraire portfolio under minimal assumptions and for general continuous-time market…
The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study…
We revisit the problem of pricing and hedging plain vanilla single-currency interest rate derivatives using multiple distinct yield curves for market coherent estimation of discount factors and forward rates with different underlying rate…
Privacy constraints have driven the rise of federated learning (FL), which enables multi-site analyses without sharing individual participant data. We develop a framework for FL with missing data, identifying conditions under which the…
Models trained under assumptions in the complete market usually don't take effect in the incomplete market. This paper solves the hedging problem in incomplete market with three sources of incompleteness: risk factor, illiquidity, and…
We study pricing and superhedging strategies for game options in an imperfect market with default. We extend the results obtained by Kifer in \cite{Kifer} in the case of a perfect market model to the case of an imperfect market with…
The No Free Lunch (NFL) theorem guarantees equal average performance only under uniform sampling of a function space closed under permutation (c.u.p.). We ask when this averaging ceases to reflect what benchmarking actually reports. We…
In a model with no given probability measure, we consider asset pricing in the presence of frictions and other imperfections and characterize the property of coherent pricing, a notion related to (but much weaker than) the no arbitrage…
The Mutual Fund Theorem (MFT) is considered in a general semimartingale financial market S with a finite time horizon T, where agents maximize expected utility of terminal wealth. It is established that: 1) Let N be the wealth process of…