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The widespread adoption of machine learning surrogate models has significantly improved the scale and complexity of systems and processes that can be explored accurately and efficiently using atomistic modeling. However, the inherently…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-03-13 Federico Grasselli , Sanggyu Chong , Venkat Kapil , Silvia Bonfanti , Kevin Rossi

Molecular dynamics simulation is now a widespread approach for understanding complex systems on the atomistic scale. It finds applications from physics and chemistry to engineering, life and medical science. In the last decade, the approach…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-04-28 Shunzhou Wan , Robert C. Sinclair , Peter V. Coveney

Machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP) has been of growing interest as a useful method to describe the energetics of systems of interest. In the present study, we examine the accuracy of linearized pairwise MLIPs and…

Materials Science · Physics 2018-08-01 Akira Takahashi , Atsuto Seko , Isao Tanaka

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have revolutionized computational materials science by bridging the gap between quantum mechanical accuracy and classical simulation efficiency, enabling unprecedented exploration of materials…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-11-17 Ardavan Mehdizadeh , Peter Schindler

Machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) enable large-scale atomistic simulations at moderate computational cost while retaining ab initio accuracy. MLIPs trained on coupled-cluster data, particularly CCSD(T), have emerged as a…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-03-11 Yuji Ikeda , Axel Forslund , Pranav Kumar , Yongliang Ou , Jong Hyun Jung , Andreas Köhn , Blazej Grabowski

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensemble methods have been proposed for uncertainty quantification; however, they are computationally intensive and require large storage. By utilizing a single deterministic model, we can solve the above…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yaxin Ma , Benjamin Colburn , Jose C. Principe

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Lizao Li , Rob Carver , Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Fei Sha , John Anderson

In this paper, we discuss feature engineering for single-pass uncertainty estimation. For accurate uncertainty estimates, neural networks must extract differences in the feature space that quantify uncertainty. This could be achieved by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Ryan Benkert , Mohit Prabhushankar , Ghassan AlRegib

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have substantially advanced atomistic simulations in materials science and chemistry by balancing accuracy and computational efficiency. While leading MLIPs rely on representing atomic…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-05-05 Mingjian Wen , Wei-Fan Huang , Jin Dai , Santosh Adhikari

This work demonstrates that fine-tuning transforms foundational machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) to achieve consistent, near-ab initio accuracy across diverse architectures. Benchmarking five leading MLIP frameworks (MACE,…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-10 Jonas Hänseroth , Aaron Flötotto , Muhammad Nawaz Qaisrani , Christian Dreßler

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

The uncertainty quantification of prediction models (e.g., neural networks) is crucial for their adoption in many robotics applications. This is arguably as important as making accurate predictions, especially for safety-critical…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Junan Chen , Josephine Monica , Wei-Lun Chao , Mark Campbell

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

Vibrational properties of solids are key to determining stability, response and functionality. However, they are challenging to computationally predict at Ab-Initio accuracy, even for elemental systems. Ab-Initio methods for modeling atomic…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-06-25 Mgcini Keith Phuthi , Yang Huang , Michael Widom , Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan

Machine learning interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) enable quantum-accurate, classical molecular dynamics simulations of large systems, beyond reach of density functional theory (DFT). Yet, their efficiency and ability to predict systems…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-11-07 Lei Zhang , Gábor Csányi , Erik van der Giessen , Francesco Maresca

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Seismic inversion is essential for geophysical exploration and geological assessment, but it is inherently subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from the limited information provided by observed seismic data,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-12 Luping Qu , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Laurent Demanet

In applications of linear mixed-effects models, experimenters often desire uncertainty quantification for random quantities, like predicted treatment effects for unobserved individuals or groups. For example, consider an agricultural…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Nicholas Syring , Fernando Miguez , Jarad Niemi

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have introduced a new paradigm for atomic simulations. Recent advancements have seen the emergence of universal MLIPs (uMLIPs) that are pre-trained on diverse materials datasets, providing…