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Long-lead forecasting for spatio-temporal systems can often entail complex nonlinear dynamics that are difficult to specify it a priori. Current statistical methodologies for modeling these processes are often highly parameterized and thus,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-05 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Stock return prediction is a problem that has received much attention in the finance literature. In recent years, sophisticated machine learning methods have been shown to perform significantly better than ''classical'' prediction…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Giovanni Ballarin , Jacopo Capra , Petros Dellaportas

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to multivariate forecasting cryptocurrency prices using a hybrid contextual model combining exponential smoothing (ES) and recurrent neural network (RNN). The model consists of two tracks: the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Slawek Smyl , Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

Echo state networks (ESNs) are a powerful form of reservoir computing that only require training of linear output weights whilst the internal reservoir is formed of fixed randomly connected neurons. With a correctly scaled connectivity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-03 Luca Manneschi , Matthew O. A. Ellis , Guido Gigante , Andrew C. Lin , Paolo Del Giudice , Eleni Vasilaki

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are recurrent neural networks usually employed for modeling nonlinear dynamic systems with relatively ease of training. By incorporating physical laws into the training of ESNs, Physics-Informed ESNs (PI-ESNs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Eric Mochiutti , Eric Aislan Antonelo , Eduardo Camponogara

At the heart of time-series forecasting (TSF) lies a fundamental challenge: how can models efficiently and effectively capture long-range temporal dependencies across ever-growing sequences? While deep learning has brought notable progress,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Hongbo Liu , Jia Xu

Temporal data modelling techniques with neural networks are useful in many domain applications, including time-series forecasting and control engineering. This paper aims at developing a recurrent version of stochastic configuration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Dianhui Wang , Gang Dang

An echo state network (ESN) is a type of reservoir computer that uses a recurrent neural network with a sparsely connected hidden layer. Compared with other recurrent neural networks, one great advantage of ESN is the simplicity of its…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-17 Clement Dinh , Yunhao Fan , Gia-Wei Chern

This paper proposes a novel and interpretable recurrent neural-network structure using the echo-state network (ESN) paradigm for time-series prediction. While the traditional ESNs perform well for dynamical systems prediction, it needs a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Debdipta Goswami

Systems with time-delayed chaotic dynamics are common in nature, from control theory to aeronautical propulsion. The overarching objective of this paper is to compute the stability properties of a chaotic dynamical system, which is…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-07 Georgios Margazoglou , Luca Magri

We explore various neural network architectures for modeling the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Traditional linear models often fall short in accurately capturing the unique and complex dynamics of this market. In contrast, Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Hugo Inzirillo

Echo-State Networks (ESNs) distil a key neurobiological insight: richly recurrent but fixed circuitry combined with adaptive linear read-outs can transform temporal streams with remarkable efficiency. Yet fundamental questions about…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Pradeep Singh , Lavanya Sankaranarayanan , Balasubramanian Raman

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are typically presented as efficient, readout-trained recurrent models, yet their dynamics and design are often guided by heuristics rather than first principles. We recast ESNs explicitly as state-space models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Pradeep Singh , Balasubramanian Raman

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are widely-used Recurrent Neural Networks. They are dynamical systems including, in state-space form, a nonlinear state equation and a linear output transformation. The common procedure to train ESNs is to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-05 Luca Bugliari Armenio , Lorenzo Fagiano , Enrico Terzi , Marcello Farina , Riccardo Scattolini

In this paper, we explore the predictive capabilities of echo state networks (ESNs) for the generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (gKS) equation, an archetypal nonlinear PDE that exhibits spatiotemporal chaos. Our research focuses on predicting…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Mohammad Shah Alam , William Ott , Ilya Timofeyev

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are a class of single-layer recurrent neural networks with randomly generated internal weights, and a single layer of tuneable outer weights, which are usually trained by regularised linear least squares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Allen G Hart , James L Hook , Jonathan H P Dawes

This paper will analyze and implement a time series dynamic neural network to predict daily closing stock prices. Neural networks possess unsurpassed abilities in identifying underlying patterns in chaotic, non-linear, and seemingly random…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-23 David Noel

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are more suitable for learning non-linear dependencies in dynamical systems from observed time series data. In practice all the external variables driving such systems are not known a priori, especially in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-02 Mhlasakululeka Mvubu , Emmanuel Kabuga , Christian Plitz , Bubacarr Bah , Ronnie Becker , Hans Georg Zimmermann

The prediction of the temporal dynamics of chaotic systems is challenging because infinitesimal perturbations grow exponentially. The analysis of the dynamics of infinitesimal perturbations is the subject of stability analysis. In stability…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-31 Georgios Margazoglou , Luca Magri

Modeling the dynamics of the formation and evolution of protostellar disks as well as the history of stellar mass accretion typically involve the numerical solution of complex systems of coupled differential equations. The resulting mass…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-04-18 Gianfranco Bino , Shantanu Basu , Ramit Dey , Sayantan Auddy , Lyle Muller , Eduard I. Vorobyov