Related papers: Extreme Event Precursor Prediction in Turbulent Dy…
Predicting extreme events in high-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems remains a fundamental challenge, as such events are rare, intermittent, and arise from transient dynamical mechanisms that are difficult to infer from limited…
We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…
Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…
Machine learning algorithms have opened a breach in the fortress of the prediction of high-dimensional chaotic systems. Their ability to find hidden correlations in data can be exploited to perform model-free forecasting of spatiotemporal…
Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…
This work proposes an innovative approach using machine learning to predict extreme events in time series of chaotic dynamical systems. The research focuses on the time series of the H\'enon map, a two-dimensional model known for its…
We derive precursors of extreme dissipation events in a turbulent channel flow. Using a recently developed method that combines dynamics and statistics for the underlying attractor, we extract a characteristic state that precedes…
We propose a physics-aware machine learning method to time-accurately predict extreme events in a turbulent flow. The method combines two radically different approaches: empirical modelling based on reservoir computing, which learns the…
An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…
A convolutional encoder-decoder-based transformer model is proposed for autoregressively training on spatio-temporal data of turbulent flows. The prediction of future fluid flow fields is based on the previously predicted fluid flow field…
Extreme-event predictability in turbulence is strongly state dependent, yet event-by-event predictability horizons are difficult to quantify without access to governing equations or costly perturbation ensembles. Here we train an…
Turbulence is characterised by chaotic dynamics and a high-dimensional state space, which make this phenomenon challenging to predict. However, turbulent flows are often characterised by coherent spatiotemporal structures, such as vortices…
We predict the emergence of extreme events in a parametrically driven nonlinear dynamical system using three Deep Learning models, namely Multi-Layer Perceptron, Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory. The Deep Learning…
Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…
Turbulent flow fields are characterized by extreme events that are statistically intermittent and carry a significant amount of energy and physical importance. To emulate these flows, we introduce the extreme variational Autoencoder (xVAE),…
Machine learning models play a vital role in the prediction task in several fields of study. In this work, we utilize the ability of machine learning algorithms to predict the occurrence of extreme events in a nonlinear mechanical system.…
A number of studies have investigated the large-scale drivers and upstream-precursors of extreme weather events, making it clear that the earliest warning signs of extreme events can be remote in both time and space from the impacted…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…
We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method-based on reservoir computing- to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of turbulent shear flow. The method leverages the strengths of two…
We use a data-driven approach to model a three-dimensional turbulent flow using cutting-edge Deep Learning techniques. The deep learning framework incorporates physical constraints on the flow, such as preserving incompressibility and…