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Related papers: Robust Simulation Based Inference

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This paper addresses the inference of spatial dependence in the context of a recently proposed framework. More specifically, the paper focuses on the estimation of model parameters for a class of generalized Gibbs random fields, i.e.,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Samuel Elogne , Dionisis Hristopulos

Identifying the parameters of a model and rating competitive models based on measured data has been among the most important but challenging topics in modern science and engineering, with great potential of application in structural system…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-02 F. A. DiazDelaO , A. Garbuno-Inigo , S. K. Au , I. Yoshida

Randomized experiments are the preferred approach for evaluating the effects of interventions, but they are costly and often yield estimates with substantial uncertainty. On the other hand, in silico experiments leveraging foundation models…

Models such as finite state automata are widely used to abstract the behavior of software systems by capturing the sequences of events observable during their execution. Nevertheless, models rarely exist in practice and, when they do, get…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Donato Clun , Donghwan Shin , Antonio Filieri , Domenico Bianculli

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Niccolò Dalmasso , Ann B. Lee , Rafael Izbicki , Taylor Pospisil , Ilmun Kim , Chieh-An Lin

We propose probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI), a novel probabilistic framework to model and infer sufficient statistics of feature attributions in flexible predictive models, via latent random variables whose mean recovers Shapley…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Mert Ketenci , Iñigo Urteaga , Victor Alfonso Rodriguez , Noémie Elhadad , Adler Perotte

An important challenge in statistical analysis lies in controlling the bias of estimators due to the ever-increasing data size and model complexity. Approximate numerical methods and data features like censoring and misclassification often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Yuming Zhang

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-29 Alexander Moreno , Tameem Adel , Edward Meeds , James M. Rehg , Max Welling

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Kenta Takatsu , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Predictive Bayesian inference (PBI) represents a model-and prior-agnostic approach to standard Bayesian inference which allows users to quantify uncertainty for a functional of interest only by specifying a forward predictive model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 David T. Frazier , Hui Wang

Copula models of multivariate data are popular because they allow separate specification of marginal distributions and the copula function. These components can be treated as inter-related modules in a modified Bayesian inference approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lucas Kock , David T. Frazier , Michael Stanley Smith , David J. Nott

We consider inference on a scalar regression coefficient under a constraint on the magnitude of the control coefficients. A class of estimators based on a regularized propensity score regression is shown to exactly solve a tradeoff between…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-11 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár , Soonwoo Kwon

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for combining information in complex settings, a task of increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed model can produce unreliable conclusions. This review…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-22 David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , David T. Frazier

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. PPI achieves this by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with larger amounts of data labeled by a reasonably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Adam Fisch , Joshua Maynez , R. Alex Hofer , Bhuwan Dhingra , Amir Globerson , William W. Cohen

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for making reliable decisions in various supervised learning scenarios, particularly when dealing with complex, multimodal data such as images and text. Current approaches often face notable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-30 Xinyu Tian , Xiaotong Shen

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

Determining the best model or models for a particular data set, a process known as Bayesian model comparison, is a critical part of probabilistic inference. Typically, this process assumes a fixed model-space (that is, a fixed set of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-01-08 Thomas HB FitzGerald , Dorothea Hammerer , Thomas D Sambrook , Will D Penny

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-22 Conor Durkan , George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Aurya S. Javeed , Drew P. Kouri , Thomas M. Surowiec

In genomics, differential abundance and expression analyses are complicated by the compositional nature of sequence count data, which reflect only relative-not absolute-abundances or expression levels. Many existing methods attempt to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Won Gu , Francesca Chiaromonte , Justin D. Silverman