Related papers: Factor-Driven Network Informed Restricted Vector A…

High-dimensional panels of time series often arise in finance and macroeconomics, where co-movements within groups of panel components occur. Extracting these groupings from the data provides a coarse-grained description of the complex…

We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents ("multilayer network"), which are…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…

The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector…

A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is defined by a VAR equation that captures lead-lag correlations amongst a set of observed variables $X$ and latent factors $F$, and a calibration equation that relates another set of…

We propose FNETS, a methodology for network estimation and forecasting of high-dimensional time series exhibiting strong serial- and cross-sectional correlations. We operate under a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model which,…

We reconcile the two worlds of dense and sparse modeling by exploiting the positive aspects of both. We employ a factor model and assume {the dynamic of the factors is non-pervasive while} the idiosyncratic term follows a sparse vector…

We propose a regularized factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows for sparsity in the factor loadings. In this framework, factors may only load on a subset of variables which simplifies the factor identification and…

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts…

Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension…

Modeling responses on the nodes of a large-scale network is an important task that arises commonly in practice. This paper proposes a community network vector autoregressive (CNAR) model, which utilizes the network structure to characterize…

Under a high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a way of efficiently estimating both the stationary graph structure between the nodal time series and their temporal dynamics. The framework is then used to make…

Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…

We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully…

Modeling high-dimensional time series with simple structures is a challenging problem. This paper proposes a network double autoregression (NDAR) model, which combines the advantages of network structure and the double autoregression (DAR)…

This article studies identification and estimation for the network vector autoregressive model with nonstationary regressors. In particular, network dependence is characterized by a nonstochastic adjacency matrix. The information set…

Multivariate network time series are ubiquitous in modern systems, yet existing network autoregressive models typically treat nodes as scalar processes, ignoring cross-variable spillovers. To capture these complex interactions without the…

We develop an estimation methodology for a factor model for high-dimensional matrix-valued time series, where common stochastic trends and common stationary factors can be present. We study, in particular, the estimation of (row and column)…

Many economic environments involve units linked by a network. I develop an econometric framework that derives the dynamics of cross-sectional variables from the lagged innovation transmission along bilateral links and that can accommodate…