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This paper deals with uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution detection in deep learning using Bayesian and ensemble methods. It proposes a practical solution to the lack of prediction diversity observed recently for standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Antoine de Mathelin , François Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

Data-driven control in unknown environments requires a clear understanding of the involved uncertainties for ensuring safety and efficient exploration. While aleatoric uncertainty that arises from measurement noise can often be explicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Neha Das , Jonas Umlauft , Armin Lederer , Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche

Controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) is a critical challenge in large-scale data analysis, particularly in the presence of outliers. A common practice involves imposing a Student-$t$ distribution to eliminate the influence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Yoshiko Hayashi

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-06 Mohammad Hossein Shaker , Eyke Hüllermeier

We propose a new assumption in outlier detection: Normal data instances are commonly located in the area that there is hardly any fluctuation on data density, while outliers are often appeared in the area that there is violent fluctuation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Ding Liu , Hui Li

Often the challenge associated with tasks like fraud and spam detection[1] is the lack of all likely patterns needed to train suitable supervised learning models. In order to overcome this limitation, such tasks are attempted as outlier or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-22 Utkarsh Porwal , Smruthi Mukund

Outlier detection is an important problem occurring in a wide range of areas. Outliers are the outcome of fraudulent behaviour, mechanical faults, human error, or simply natural deviations. Many data mining applications perform outlier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Juan A. Lara , David Lizcano , Víctor Rampérez , Javier Soriano

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Thom Badings , Thiago D. Simão , Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen

Bayesian averaging over classification models allows the uncertainty of classification outcomes to be evaluated, which is of crucial importance for making reliable decisions in applications such as financial in which risks have to be…

The idea to distinguish and quantify two important types of uncertainty, often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic, has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In this paper, we consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Mohammad Hossein Shaker , Eyke Hüllermeier

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Sanyam Kapoor , Wesley J. Maddox , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

We propose a general solution to the problem of robust Bayesian inference in complex settings where outliers may be present. In practice, the automation of robust Bayesian analyses is important in the many applications involving large and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Jeremie Houssineau , David J. Nott

The paper proposes a new latent variable model for the simultaneous (two-way) detection of outlying individuals and items for item-response-type data. The proposed model is a synergy between a factor model for binary responses and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yunxiao Chen , Yan Lu , Irini Moustaki

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-12-03 Vitaly Schetinin , Jonathan Fieldsend , Derek Partridge , Wojtek Krzanowski , Richard Everson , Trevor Bailey , Adolfo Hernandez

Uncertainty propagation in high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic structural systems is pivotal in state-of-the-art performance-based design and risk assessment, where uncertainties from both excitations and structures, i.e., the aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Manisha Sapkota , Min Li , Bowei Li

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Janis Postels , Mattia Segu , Tao Sun , Luca Sieber , Luc Van Gool , Fisher Yu , Federico Tombari

Outliers are the points which are different from or inconsistent with the rest of the data. They can be novel, new, abnormal, unusual or noisy information. Outliers are sometimes more interesting than the majority of the data. The main…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2014-06-20 Singh Vijendra , Pathak Shivani

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Sai Munikoti , Deepesh Agarwal , Laya Das , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

With the recently rapid development in deep learning, deep neural networks have been widely adopted in many real-life applications. However, deep neural networks are also known to have very little control over its uncertainty for unseen…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Wenhu Chen , Yilin Shen , Hongxia Jin , William Wang