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The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-15 Ziheng Yang , Tianqi Zhu

Phylogenetic inference, grounded in molecular evolution models, is essential for understanding the evolutionary relationships in biological data. Accounting for the uncertainty of phylogenetic tree variables, which include tree topologies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Takahiro Mimori , Michiaki Hamada

Frequentist-style large-sample properties of Bayesian posterior distributions, such as consistency and convergence rates, are important considerations in nonparametric problems. In this paper we give an analysis of Bayesian asymptotics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-02 Ryan Martin , Liang Hong

Datasets can be biased due to societal inequities, human biases, under-representation of minorities, etc. Our goal is to certify that models produced by a learning algorithm are pointwise-robust to potential dataset biases. This is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Anna P. Meyer , Aws Albarghouthi , Loris D'Antoni

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Leonardo Cella , Emily C. Hector

Algorithms for binary classification based on adaptive tree partitioning are formulated and analyzed for both their risk performance and their friendliness to numerical implementation. The algorithms can be viewed as generating a set…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-05 Peter Binev , Albert Cohen , Wolfgang Dahmen , Ronald DeVore

Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and Bayesianadditive regression trees have been successfully used for regression problems in many applicationsand research studies. In this paper, we study ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Alexandre Seiller , Éric Gaussier , Emilie Devijver , Marianne Clausel , Sami Alkhoury

Learning a Bayesian networks with bounded treewidth is important for reducing the complexity of the inferences. We present a novel anytime algorithm (k-MAX) method for this task, which scales up to thousands of variables. Through extensive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-08 Mauro Scanagatta , Giorgio Corani , Marco Zaffalon , Jaemin Yoo , U Kang

In Bayesian phylogenetics, our goal is to estimate the posterior distribution over phylogenetic trees. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used to approximate the phylogenetic posterior distributions. For large-scale sequence data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Wentao Yu , Shijia Wang

In phylogenetics, a central problem is to infer the evolutionary relationships between a set of species $X$; these relationships are often depicted via a phylogenetic tree -- a tree having its leaves univocally labeled by elements of $X$…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-04-12 Julien Baste , Christophe Paul , Ignasi Sau , Celine Scornavacca

Motivation: The construction of statistics for summarizing posterior samples returned by a Bayesian phylogenetic study has so far been hindered by the poor geometric insights available into the space of phylogenetic trees, and ad hoc…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-13 Philipp Benner , Miroslav Bacak , Pierre-Yves Bourguignon

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular the fossilized…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-04 Alexei J. Drummond , Tanja Stadler

Uncovering genuine relationships between a response variable of interest and a large collection of covariates is a fundamental and practically important problem. In the context of Gaussian linear models, both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-11 Jeyong Lee , Minwoo Chae , Ryan Martin

The reconstruction of a species tree from genomic data faces a double hurdle. First, the (gene) tree describing the evolution of each gene may differ from the species tree, for instance, due to incomplete lineage sorting. Second, the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-07 Sebastien Roch , Mike Steel

Given natural limitations on the length DNA sequences, designing phylogenetic reconstruction methods which are reliable under limited information is a crucial endeavor. There have been two approaches to this problem: reconstructing partial…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2008-12-10 Radu Mihaescu , Cameron Hill , Satish Rao

Reconstructing evolutionary trees from molecular sequence data is a fundamental problem in computational biology. Stochastic models of sequence evolution are closely related to spin systems that have been extensively studied in statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-20 Sebastien Roch , Allan Sly

Much is now known about the consistency of Bayesian updating on infinite-dimensional parameter spaces with independent or Markovian data. Necessary conditions for consistency include the prior putting enough weight on the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs) and dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are widely used sequence models with complementary strengths and limitations. While PCFGs allow for nested hierarchical dependencies (tree structures), their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Robert Lieck , Martin Rohrmeier

Bayesian approaches to reconstructing the evolutionary history of languages rely on the tree model, which assumes that these languages descended from a common ancestor and underwent modifications over time. However, this assumption can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Yugo Murawaki

We consider the problem of estimating the evolutionary history of a set of species (phylogeny or species tree) from several genes. It is known that the evolutionary history of individual genes (gene trees) might be topologically distinct…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-11-18 Gautam Dasarathy , Robert Nowak , Sebastien Roch