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Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Rafael Oliveira

Phylogenomics, even more so than traditional phylogenetics, needs to represent the uncertainty in evolutionary trees due to systematic error. Here we illustrate the analysis of genome-scale alignments of yeast, using robust measures of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-12-31 Peter J. Waddell , Ariful Azad

Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Li Ma , Benedetta Bruni

Ancestral sequence reconstruction is a key task in computational biology. It consists in inferring a molecular sequence at an ancestral species of a known phylogeny, given descendant sequences at the tip of the tree. In addition to its many…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-27 Brandon Legried , Sebastien Roch

Many asymptotically minimax procedures for function estimation often rely on somewhat arbitrary and restrictive assumptions such as isotropy or spatial homogeneity. This work enhances the theoretical understanding of Bayesian additive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Seonghyun Jeong , Veronika Rockova

Binary trait data record the presence or absence of distinguishing traits in individuals. We treat the problem of estimating ancestral trees with time depth from binary trait data. Simple analysis of such data is problematic. Each homology…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-08-31 Geoff K. Nicholls , Russell D. Gray

Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Scott Davies , Andrew Moore

Mixture model-based frameworks are very popular for statistical inference in clustering. While convenient for producing probabilistic estimates of cluster assignments and uncertainty, they are prone to misspecification, which can lead to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Yu Zheng , Leo L. Duan , Arkaprava Roy

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior…

Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Andreea-Ingrid Cross

The hierarchical and recursive expressive capability of rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. On the other hand, such hierarchical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Yuta Nakahara , Shota Saito , Akira Kamatsuka , Toshiyasu Matsushima

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marcus Hutter

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

The search for similarity and dissimilarity measures on phylogenetic trees has been motivated by the computation of consensus trees, the search by similarity in phylogenetic databases, and the assessment of clustering results in…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-11-09 Francesc Rossello , Gabriel Valiente

Historical linguistics aims at inferring the most likely language phylogenetic tree starting from information concerning the evolutionary relatedness of languages. The available information are typically lists of homologous (lexical,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-27 Simone Pompei , Vittorio Loreto , Francesca Tria

We study the problem of learning a Bayesian network (BN) of a set of variables when structural side information about the system is available. It is well known that learning the structure of a general BN is both computationally and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-22 Ehsan Mokhtarian , Sina Akbari , Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Comparative analyses of phylogenetic trees typically require identical taxon sets, however, in practice, trees often include distinct but overlapping taxa. Pruning non-shared leaves discards phylogenetic signal, whereas tree completion can…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-28 Aleksandr Koshkarov , Nadia Tahiri

One of the main aims of phylogenetics is the reconstruction of the correct evolutionary tree when data concerning the underlying species set are given. These data typically come in the form of DNA, RNA or protein alignments, which consist…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-03-22 Mareike Fischer

In this dissertation, we develop nonparametric Bayesian models for biomedical data analysis. In particular, we focus on inference for tumor heterogeneity and inference for missing data. First, we present a Bayesian feature allocation model…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-23 Tianjian Zhou