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A popular quantitative approach to evaluating player performance in sports involves comparing an observed outcome to the expected outcome ignoring player involvement, which is estimated using statistical or machine learning methods. In…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-22 Robert Bajons , Lucas Kook

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Autonomous vehicles should be able to generate accurate probabilistic predictions for uncertain behavior of other road users. Moreover, reactive predictions are necessary in highly interactive driving scenarios to answer "what if I take…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Wei Zhan , Liting Sun , Yeping Hu , Jiachen Li , Masayoshi Tomizuka

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

Prediction performance does not always reflect the estimation behaviour of a method. High error in estimation may necessarily not result in high prediction error, but can lead to an unreliable prediction if test data lie in a slightly…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-22 Raju Rimal , Trygve Almøy , Solve Sæbø

Trajectory prediction modules are key enablers for safe and efficient planning of autonomous vehicles (AVs), particularly in highly interactive traffic scenarios. Recently, learning-based trajectory predictors have experienced considerable…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Sushant Veer , Apoorva Sharma , Marco Pavone

Rationalization is to employ a generator and a predictor to construct a self-explaining NLP model in which the generator selects a subset of human-intelligible pieces of the input text to the following predictor. However, rationalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Wei Liu , Haozhao Wang , Jun Wang , Ruixuan Li , Xinyang Li , Yuankai Zhang , Yang Qiu

We present a regularized logistic regression model for evaluating player contributions in hockey. The traditional metric for this purpose is the plus-minus statistic, which allocates a single unit of credit (for or against) to each player…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-15 Robert B. Gramacy , Matthew A. Taddy , Shane T. Jensen

Accurate and robust recognition and prediction of traffic situation plays an important role in autonomous driving, which is a prerequisite for risk assessment and effective decision making. Although there exist a lot of works dealing with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Jiachen Li , Hengbo Ma , Wei Zhan , Masayoshi Tomizuka

Sparsity is a common issue in many trajectory datasets, including human mobility data. This issue frequently brings more difficulty to relevant learning tasks, such as trajectory imputation and prediction. Nowadays, little existing work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-13 Kyle K. Qin , Yongli Ren , Wei Shao , Brennan Lake , Filippo Privitera , Flora D. Salim

The authors present a cyber-physical systems study on the estimation of driver behavior in autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. Extending upon previous work, the approach described is suitable for the long term estimation and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-01-25 Vijay Gadepally , Ashok Krishnamurthy

This paper extends recent work in interactive machine learning (IML) focused on effectively incorporating human feedback. We show how control and feedback signals complement each other in systems which model human reward. We demonstrate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-01-27 Kory W. Mathewson , Patrick M. Pilarski

Rare and challenging driving scenarios are critical for autonomous vehicle development. Since they are difficult to encounter, simulating or generating them using generative models is a popular approach. Following previous efforts to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Arthur Hubert , Gamal Elghazaly , Raphaël Frank

Drivers' heterogeneity and the broad range of vehicle characteristics on public roads are primarily responsible for the stochasticity observed in road traffic dynamics. Understanding the behavioural differences in drivers (human or…

The ``prediction + optimal control'' scheme has shown good performance in many applications of automotive, traffic, robot, and building control. In practice, the prediction results are simply considered correct in the optimal control design…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-07 Xiangrui Zeng , Cheng Yin , Zhouping Yin

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) techniques have recently yielded promising results for real-world autonomous racing using high-dimensional observations. MBRL agents, such as Dreamer, solve long-horizon tasks by building a world…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Elena Shrestha , Chetan Reddy , Hanxi Wan , Yulun Zhuang , Ram Vasudevan

With the development of measurement technology, data on the movements of actual games in various sports can be obtained and used for planning and evaluating the tactics and strategy. Defense in team sports is generally difficult to be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-10 Kosuke Toda , Masakiyo Teranishi , Keisuke Kushiro , Keisuke Fujii

An open problem in autonomous driving research is modeling human driving behavior, which is needed for the planning component of the autonomy stack, safety validation through traffic simulation, and causal inference for generating…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-15 Raunak P. Bhattacharyya , Kyle Brown , Juanran Wang , Katherine Driggs-Campbell , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Recent developments of advanced driver-assistance systems necessitate an increasing number of tests to validate new technologies. These tests cannot be carried out on track in a reasonable amount of time and automotive groups rely on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-16 Clara Carlier , Arnaud Franju , Matthieu Lerasle , Mathias Obrebski

Deployed supervised machine learning models make predictions that interact with and influence the world. This phenomenon is called performative prediction by Perdomo et al. (ICML 2020). It is an ongoing challenge to understand the influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Gavin Brown , Shlomi Hod , Iden Kalemaj
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